Super El Niño 2026 Telah Tiba: Dampak dan Cara Menyikapinya bagi Pertanian dan Perikanan Dunia Berdasarkan Berita dari Berbagai Negara

1. Seberapa kuat El Niño kali ini? Penjelasan dari tiga lembaga

El Niño adalah pemanasan air laut yang tidak normal di Pasifik tengah dan timur sekitar khatulistiwa. Begitu air laut menghangat, awan dan hujan di atasnya ikut bergeser, sehingga musim hujan dan musim kemarau di banyak tempat di dunia berbeda dari biasanya: ada tempat yang hujannya tidak turun, ada tempat yang hujannya terlalu banyak.

• NOAA (October 8): In September, the sea surface temperature index for the equatorial Pacific (NOAA's relative index) reached about +2.1°C, and waters near South America were as much as 3.9°C above normal. The chance of reaching "record-breaking strength" in October–December is about 83%, and a strong or stronger El Niño is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2027.
• World Meteorological Organization (late October): It forecasts that from November through January, sea temperatures in the key ocean region may be 3.7–3.8°C above average, peaking around December. The WMO and NOAA calculate on different bases, so the numbers cannot be compared directly, but the conclusion is the same: this is very likely the strongest El Niño since observations began.
• Badan Cuaca Pusat Taiwan (16 Oktober): Indeks El Niño Samudra (ONI) terbaru naik menjadi 2,2, tertinggi untuk periode yang sama sejak 1950, dan sudah mencapai tingkat "super El Niño". Puncaknya diperkirakan pada musim dingin dan bertahan hingga musim semi tahun depan.

2. Berita dari berbagai negara: bagaimana dampaknya pada pertanian?

Asia Tenggara: padi, tebu, dan minyak sawit paling dulu terkena

• Thailand: Krungthai COMPASS, the research unit of Krungthai Bank, estimated in July that from the second half of 2026 to mid-2027, El Niño could cause more than 62 billion baht in agricultural losses, including a rice shortfall of about 5.4 million metric tons, sugarcane of about 12 million metric tons and cassava of about 3.1 million metric tons. In early June, usable water in central reservoirs once fell to only about 28%; after the October rainy season, nationwide reservoir storage has recovered to above 80%, but whether there will be enough water in the dry season still depends on next year's rain. The research unit advises farmers to adopt water-saving methods such as alternate wetting and drying, switch to drought-tolerant varieties, and keep a close eye on weather forecasts.
• Vietnam: Pusat Prakiraan Hidrometeorologi Nasional Vietnam menyatakan pada akhir September bahwa curah hujan di wilayah tengah selatan, Dataran Tinggi Tengah, dan wilayah selatan mungkin 20–40% lebih sedikit, dan musim hujan mungkin berakhir lebih awal. Pada Januari–Mei 2027, aliran Sungai Mekong ke Vietnam mungkin berkurang sekitar sepertiga, dan saat pasang pada Februari–April, air asin dapat masuk puluhan kilometer ke daratan, mengancam panen padi musim dingin-semi, penanaman padi musim panas-gugur, kebun buah, budidaya perikanan, dan air minum. Di Dataran Tinggi Tengah, masih ada sekitar 735 ribu hektare tanaman seperti kopi dan lada yang berada di luar jaringan irigasi.
• The Philippines: Philippine media reported in October that rice imports in 2026 may exceed 5 million metric tons, breaking the record set in 2024.
• Minyak sawit: Indonesia dan Malaysia bersama-sama menyumbang sekitar 87% ekspor minyak sawit dunia. Menurut data Jaringan Sistem Peringatan Dini Kelaparan AS (FEWS NET), pada tahun-tahun El Niño kuat sejak 1980, produksi kedua negara rata-rata sekitar 4% di bawah normal. BMI, bagian dari Fitch, juga mengingatkan bahwa produksi minyak sawit, harga pangan, dan pasokan listrik Malaysia semuanya dapat terdampak.

Asia Selatan: curah hujan monsun kurang

Before the season began, the India Meteorological Department forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon would reach only 92% of the long-term average. Indian media report that by the end of the monsoon season, cumulative rainfall was 12.6% below the long-term average, the weakest since 2015, and rainfall in October may also be low. Monsoon rainfall in Pakistan's Sindh, Balochistan and other areas has been clearly below normal, and FEWS NET expects the worst food shortages there to come in January–March 2027.

Australia, Afrika, dan Amerika Tengah serta Selatan

• Australian wheat: According to FEWS NET, in past El Niño years Australian wheat output has averaged about 15% below trend; however, output in 1986/87, 1997/98 and 2009/10 was close to or above normal, while the two most recent events (2015/16 and 2023/24) were about 12% and 22% lower respectively, which shows the result still depends on the actual rain in the season.
• Maize in southern Africa: The main maize season is sown in October–December, which coincides with the El Niño peak, and South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and other countries are forecast to be drier than normal. In past El Niño years, South African maize output has averaged about 28% below trend. This year's grain harvest in southern Africa is nearly 10% above the five-year average, so stocks can cushion the shortfall for now, but FEWS NET expects the toughest time to be the lean season from late 2027 to early 2028.
• Afrika Timur: Kondisinya dua sisi. Musim hujan Juni–September tahun ini kering di Etiopia, Sudan Selatan, Sudan, dan wilayah lain; sementara curah hujan Oktober–Desember di Somalia, Kenya, dan wilayah lain mungkin mencapai lebih dari satu setengah kali rata-rata, dengan risiko banjir di dataran rendah di tepi sungai.
• Amerika Tengah: Pusat Penelitian Gabungan Uni Eropa (JRC) menyatakan pada September bahwa panen jagung dan kacang-kacangan di "Koridor Kering" terpukul parah, dan Honduras serta El Salvador sudah menyatakan keadaan darurat nasional.
• Peru, Ekuador: Berbeda dengan Asia, yang perlu dikhawatirkan di pesisir barat Amerika Selatan adalah hujan lebat, banjir, dan tanah longsor.

Taiwan dan Asia Timur

The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. Temperatures over the coming season tend to be warmer than normal, but most of the results are not statistically significant. The Administration also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only and that changes in other climate systems also need to be watched. Weather experts in mainland China have also warned that the spring and summer of 2027 may bring "floods in the south and drought in the north."

Taiwanese farmers are no strangers to water shortages: this spring, rainfall since last autumn and winter was the lowest in about 50 years, and Hsinchu and Miaoli put rotational irrigation in place, with three days of water supply followed by three days without. This time northeastern Taiwan may be drier toward the end of the year, so water needs to be looked after first; if western Taiwan turns wetter next January, milkfish, hard clam and white shrimp ponds in Yunlin, Chiayi and Tainan should watch for salinity suddenly dropping after heavy rain.

Pangan dunia: jumlahnya belum tentu turun tajam, yang terpukul adalah wilayah tertentu, petani kecil, dan harga

El Niño does not necessarily cut the world's food supply sharply. Looking back at strong El Niño years since 1980, FEWS NET found that global output of wheat, maize and rice did not change much overall; FEWS NET, citing U.S. Department of Agriculture projections, says that total output of the three major crops in 2026/27 will be about 2.7% lower than last year, still at a historically high level. The ones who really suffer are specific regions: smallholders who depend on rainfall, irrigation districts whose reservoirs have run dry, and countries that rely on imported food. Higher food prices and shortages often do not show up fully until the next harvest after the El Niño peak.

3. Perikanan dan budidaya: laut menghangat, ikan berkurang, oksigen pun berkurang

Peru: The World's Largest Anchovy Fishery, Halted in the North-Central Region

The cold water off Peru normally supports the world's largest anchovy fishery. El Niño has warmed the sea, so anchovies are retreating toward the coast, to the south and into deeper water, and the share of juveniles is too high; since late May the Peruvian government has repeatedly extended the fishing ban. In mid-October, the Ministry of Production announced that the second fishing season would not open in the north-central fishing zone, citing abnormally warm seawater and breeding indicators below historical levels, and the need to protect the resource first (the second season in the southern fishing zone opened as normal in July). The Peruvian Marine Institute (IMARPE) estimates the anchovy stock in the north-central waters at about 5.12 million metric tons (data as of October 7), about 28% less than the survey at the start of this year (the local summer), with juveniles making up about 80% by number.

Hal ini berkaitan dengan pembudidaya di seluruh dunia. Ikan teri Peru memasok lebih dari separuh minyak ikan dunia dan juga sumber penting tepung ikan, sedangkan tepung ikan dan minyak ikan adalah bahan baku pakan udang dan pakan ikan. Ketika tangkapan berkurang, biaya pakan ikut tertekan.

Marine Heatwaves in Many Places: Water Too Hot for Farmed Fish to Cope

• Pohang, South Korea: In August, a marine heatwave pushed water temperatures off Pohang up to 27.6–28.1°C. Reports in early August already put farmed fish deaths at about 810,000; by the end of August, the cumulative total in Gyeongsangbuk-do was about 2.63 million, of which about 2.52 million were in Pohang, mostly starry flounder (a type of flatfish), which prefers cold water. Local authorities spent about 4 billion won to rush in liquid oxygen and circulation pumps, but these can only add oxygen and cannot lower the water temperature; reports noted that high temperatures weaken the fish's resistance and make them prone to bacterial infection, so adding oxygen alone cannot save them. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that global sea surface temperature in July this year set a record for the month, and reports said El Niño was one of the main causes.
• Ekuador: Hasil tangkapan kapal tuna berkurang, dan kapal harus berlayar ke laut lepas yang lebih jauh untuk menangkap ikan.
• Coral reefs: In September, many sea areas had already issued severe bleaching alerts.

Budidaya udang dan ikan: terjepit panas, hujan, dan kekeringan

The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold; yet at high temperatures the metabolism of fish and shrimp speeds up and they need more oxygen. This shortage on one side and higher demand on the other, together with the fact that at night algae, fish and shrimp only consume oxygen and produce none, is why fish gasp at the surface and die suddenly in the early morning in hot weather. When heavy rain arrives, a large amount of fresh water pours into the pond and salinity and pH change a lot all at once; in a drought, water cannot be replenished and the pond water gets more and more concentrated. At the Global Shrimp Forum in September, weather experts also cautioned that warming seas around Ecuador may at first favor shrimp growth, but heavy rain will lower salinity and flood ponds; in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, temperature and salinity may both rise.

4. Lima risiko dalam satu ringkasan

Ada satu hal lagi yang sering terlupakan: jeda waktu. Puncak El Niño ada pada musim dingin tahun ini, tetapi puncak salinisasi di Vietnam baru terjadi pada Februari–April tahun depan, dan puncak kekurangan pangan di Afrika bagian selatan lebih lambat lagi, yaitu akhir 2027. Dengan kata lain, bersiap sekarang masih sempat.

5. Yang dapat dilakukan petani dan pembudidaya sekarang

• Use water sparingly and where it counts: Alternate wetting and drying recommended by the Thai research unit (let the water in the field drop to a certain depth below the soil surface before topping it up, rather than keeping the field flooded all the time; but keep shallow water from booting through heading and flowering), switching to drought-tolerant varieties, and scheduling sowing by the weather forecast are all things you can do without spending much.
• Periksa penampungan dan drainase lebih dulu: Periksa embung, bak penampung, saluran drainase, dan pompa sebelum musim kemarau, dan bersihkan sebelum musim hujan.
• Lower the risk at fish ponds: Delay stocking or lower the density in ponds not yet stocked, and consider harvesting earlier in batches from ponds already stocked; watch dissolved oxygen in the early morning, cut or stop feeding when it is hot and dissolved oxygen is low, and keep paddlewheels running from night until early morning; have spare aerators and a generator ready, test-run them regularly and keep enough fuel in stock; check salinity and pH more often before and after heavy rain.
• Make sure someone knows about a power outage: An aerator that stops without anyone noticing is a common and especially regrettable loss.
• Jaga juga orang yang bekerja di lahan: Saat suhu tinggi, hindari tengah hari, perbanyak minum, dan untuk bahaya panas pada pekerjaan luar ruangan Anda dapat merujuk ke "Apa Itu WBGT".

6. Apa yang dapat dibantu oleh YenProtek?

Cuaca yang dibawa El Niño tidak bisa dihentikan siapa pun; yang bisa dilakukan adalah tahu lebih awal, lebih sedikit bolak-balik, dan peralatan yang perlu menyala menyala tepat waktu. YenProtek tidak membuat teknologi yang rumit, melainkan alat yang praktis bagi petani dan pembudidaya, dan sebagian besar dapat dipasang pada peralatan yang sudah ada.

Saat kekurangan air: beri air hanya saat benar-benar dibutuhkan

The FarmerPack is a solar-powered, modular field micro weather station that can measure soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, rainfall and more, with a sampling interval as short as 1 minute, and it can run for more than 30 days without sunlight. Paired with a Smart Control Box, you can set "open the water only when soil moisture is below the set value, and not when it is raining," and there is no need to replace your existing pump motors or solenoid valves. When reservoirs restrict water, no watering is wasted; intermittent irrigation and alternate wetting and drying can also be carried out according to actual conditions in the field (further reading: "What Is Intermittent Irrigation?" and "What Is an Automatic Sprinkler System?").

Saat suhu tinggi: beri tahu begitu panas, nyalakan yang perlu dinyalakan

Ketika suhu udara yang diukur FarmerPack melebihi nilai yang Anda tetapkan, ponsel Anda akan menerima notifikasi. Kipas, penyemprot kabut, dan motor jaring peneduh di rumah kaca dapat dihubungkan ke Smart Control Box untuk dinyalakan dan dimatikan dari jarak jauh lewat ponsel, atau dapat diatur agar menyala otomatis ketika suhu tercapai. Jika jaringan terputus sementara, kotak kontrol tetap bekerja sesuai pengaturan terakhir yang diunduh dari cloud.

Tambak: oksigen terlarut dan kualitas air, tidak perlu menunggu keliling kolam

The AquaPack is a water quality sensing system with a patented circulating self-cleaning design that can continuously measure dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, conductivity, ammonia nitrogen and more. You can see earlier when dissolved oxygen drops in the early morning during a heatwave, when pH changes after heavy rain, or when pond conductivity suddenly rises (often a sign that salt water has entered), and use this as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. To have aerators turn on automatically when dissolved oxygen is low, you need to choose the LoRa communication version and use it with a Smart Control Box; we still recommend that the main aerator run on a night schedule, with the dissolved oxygen rule only switching on additional units. The conductivity measurement range suits freshwater ponds for spotting early signals; for brackish water and seawater, please contact us first about the probe measurement range.

Listrik padam dan banjir: saat peringatan paling dibutuhkan, peringatan tidak boleh ikut kehabisan daya

In a heatwave, power supply is tight; when typhoons and heavy rain damage power lines, an aerator that stops means a race against time. The Power Outage Alert Module is installed on the power supply line of an aerator or pump and has a built-in battery; choose the NB-IoT version or 4G version with a built-in SIM, and it can still send out the alert throughout the outage (provided the local mobile network still has signal), notifying several people by LINE, SMS, email or voice call. The Flood Alert System notifies managers when the water level reaches the warning value, and can also trigger an audible and visual alarm depending on the plan; paired with a Smart Control Box, it can "turn on the pump when the water level is reached" (further reading: "Flooded and Without Power, Who Will Notify You?" and "A Fish Pond Power Outage Is No Small Matter").

Bagaimana cara memasangnya?

Semua data pemantauan dapat disediakan melalui API dan MCP untuk dihubungkan ke sistem manajemen atau alat AI yang sudah ada. Peralatan YenProtek dirancang dan dibuat oleh tim di Taiwan, dan pelanggan di luar negeri mendapat dukungan teknis jarak jauh; pita koneksi, jaringan telekomunikasi, dan persyaratan sertifikasi berbeda di setiap negara, jadi beri tahu kami negara dan lokasi Anda, dan kami akan memastikan versi komunikasi yang sesuai.

Penutup: El Niño tidak bisa dihentikan, tetapi kita bisa tahu satu langkah lebih awal

Puncak El Niño kali ini ada pada musim dingin tahun ini, tetapi dampaknya pada pertanian dan perikanan akan berlanjut hingga 2027: salinisasi di Vietnam pada musim semi tahun depan, kekurangan pangan di Afrika bagian selatan pada akhir tahun depan, dan gejolak harga pakan dan pangan mungkin lebih lama lagi. Prakiraan musiman memberi tahu kita apa yang "mungkin" terjadi; yang sebenarnya menentukan besarnya kerugian adalah seberapa cepat Anda tahu dan seberapa cepat Anda menangani saat ada masalah di sawah atau kolam. Jika ingin tahu bagaimana menyusun peralatan untuk lahan, rumah kaca, atau tambak Anda, silakan buka Hubungi Kami dan beri tahu kami lokasi serta negara Anda, atau lebih dulu buka Estimasi Harga Online untuk memilih kombinasi peralatan.

FAQ | Pertanyaan Umum tentang El Niño dan Pertanian serta Perikanan

Q1: Apa itu El Niño? Berapa lama kali ini akan berlangsung?

El Niño adalah fenomena ketika air laut di Pasifik tengah dan timur sekitar khatulistiwa menghangat secara tidak normal, sehingga mengubah atmosfer dan pola curah hujan di seluruh dunia. Pada Oktober 2026, Badan Cuaca Pusat Taiwan menyatakan El Niño kali ini sudah mencapai tingkat super kuat, diperkirakan mencapai puncaknya pada musim dingin tahun ini dan bertahan hingga musim semi tahun depan. NOAA juga memperkirakan El Niño tetap berada di tingkat kuat atau lebih hingga kuartal pertama 2027. Dampaknya pada tanaman dan harga pangan di berbagai tempat sering baru terlihat sepenuhnya pada musim berikutnya atau panen berikutnya setelah puncak El Niño.

Q2: Apakah El Niño pasti membuat Taiwan kekeringan?

Not necessarily. The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. It also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only. A more practical approach is to look at actual conditions in your own field or pond when deciding when to irrigate or change water, rather than relying only on seasonal forecasts.

Q3: Apa yang perlu diperhatikan di tambak selama El Niño?

The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold, yet fish and shrimp need more oxygen, so pay particular attention to dissolved oxygen in the early morning when it is hot. Heavy rain or drought makes salinity and pH change faster, and it is dangerous whenever an aerator stops because of a power outage. Water quality sensing can keep track of dissolved oxygen, water temperature and conductivity (for brackish-water and seawater ponds, please contact us first about the probe measurement range), as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. You can also add a Power Outage Alert Module (NB-IoT or 4G version) to the aerator, which can still send an alert after the power goes out.

Q4: Apakah peralatan YenProtek dapat digunakan di negara selain Taiwan?

Pita koneksi, jaringan telekomunikasi, dan persyaratan sertifikasi berbeda di setiap negara. Beri tahu kami negara dan lokasi penggunaan Anda, dan kami akan memastikan versi komunikasi serta cara pengirimannya yang sesuai. Peralatan dirancang dan dibuat oleh tim di Taiwan, dan pelanggan di luar negeri mendapat dukungan teknis jarak jauh.

Sumber Data

• Prakiraan El Niño NOAA Climate Prediction Center Oktober 2026 (dirangkum The Watchers)
• Outlook musim dingin Organisasi Meteorologi Dunia (The Weather Channel, 2026-10-22)
• Badan Cuaca Pusat Taiwan: Super El Niño bertahan hingga musim semi tahun depan (United Daily News, 2026-10-16)
• Prakiraan curah hujan Badan Cuaca Pusat Taiwan untuk satu musim ke depan (PChome News, 2026-10-16)
• Krungthai COMPASS memperkirakan kerugian pertanian Thailand (The Nation, 2026-07-09)
• Thailand's reservoir storage recovers in October (The Nation, 2026-10)
• Vietnam menyikapi El Niño dan salinisasi Sungai Mekong (Việt Nam News, 2026-09-26)
• Philippine rice imports may exceed 5 million metric tons (Context.ph, 2026-10-07)
• BMI: El Niño mengancam minyak sawit, harga pangan, dan listrik Malaysia (Business Today, 2026-10-26)
• FEWS NET: Laporan Khusus Ketahanan Pangan El Niño 2026–2027 (2026-10)
• Pusat Penelitian Gabungan Uni Eropa: gagal panen di Amerika Tengah dan Afrika Timur (2026-09-03)
• Prakiraan monsun India 2026 di bawah normal (Outlook Business)
• India's 2026 monsoon ends with 12.6% less rainfall (DSIJ)
• Peru's Ministry of Production: second anchovy fishing season will not open in the north-central fishing zone (Forbes Perú, 2026-10-16)
• Peru opens second anchovy fishing season in the southern fishing zone (El Peruano)
• Peru's anchovy fishing seasons and the global fish oil supply (NutraIngredients, 2026-10-19)
• Gelombang panas laut di Pohang, Korea Selatan, menyebabkan kematian ikan budidaya (Tech Times, 2026-08-10)
• Gyeongsangbuk-do statistics on farmed fish deaths from high water temperatures in August (Kyongbuk Maeil, 2026-09-01)
• El Niño in 2026 already affecting shipping, fish stocks and heat (The Conversation, 2026-09-10)
• Different El Niño risks for shrimp farms (The Fish Site, 2026-09-09)
• Taiwan's autumn–winter rainfall lowest in about 50 years; rotational irrigation in Hsinchu and Miaoli (Taipei Times, 2026-03-19)
• Tiongkok daratan memperingatkan "banjir di selatan, kekeringan di utara" pada 2027 (ETtoday, 2026-10-14)