Article Summary | The 2026 El Niño has reached super-strength level: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) published by Taiwan's Central Weather Administration on October 16 has risen to 2.2, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also say it is very likely the strongest since observations began, peaking this winter with effects lasting into 2027. News from around the world already shows the consequences: a Thai research unit estimates that agricultural losses may exceed 62 billion baht, Vietnam is preparing for saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, India's monsoon rainfall fell short, Peru will not open a second anchovy fishing season in its north-central fishing zone, and farmed fish in South Korea died in large numbers during a marine heatwave. This article organizes these reports into five risks: drought and water shortage, high temperatures, heavy rain and flooding, saltwater intrusion, and power outages. It explains what farmers and fish farmers can prepare now and where YenProtek's tools can help. (Data as of October 30, 2026)

1. 이번 엘니뇨는 얼마나 강합니까? 세 기관의 설명

엘니뇨(El Niño)는 적도 중·동부 태평양의 바닷물이 비정상적으로 따뜻해지는 현상입니다. 바닷물이 따뜻해지면 그 위의 구름과 비도 따라 움직여서, 세계 곳곳의 우기와 건기가 평소와 달라집니다. 어떤 곳은 비가 오지 않고, 어떤 곳은 비가 너무 많이 옵니다.

  • NOAA (October 8): In September, the sea surface temperature index for the equatorial Pacific (NOAA's relative index) reached about +2.1°C, and waters near South America were as much as 3.9°C above normal. The chance of reaching "record-breaking strength" in October–December is about 83%, and a strong or stronger El Niño is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2027.
  • World Meteorological Organization (late October): It forecasts that from November through January, sea temperatures in the key ocean region may be 3.7–3.8°C above average, peaking around December. The WMO and NOAA calculate on different bases, so the numbers cannot be compared directly, but the conclusion is the same: this is very likely the strongest El Niño since observations began.
  • 대만 중앙기상서(10월 16일): 최신 해양 엘니뇨 지수(ONI)가 2.2까지 올라 1950년 이래 같은 시기 가운데 가장 높았고, 이미 "슈퍼 엘니뇨" 등급에 이르렀습니다. 겨울에 정점에 이르고 내년 봄까지 이어질 것으로 예상합니다.

먼저 기억해 두실 것: 엘니뇨가 강하다고 해서 모든 곳이 반드시 가물거나 반드시 물에 잠기는 것은 아닙니다. NOAA도 전망은 어떤 날씨가 "더 일어나기 쉽다"는 뜻일 뿐 모든 지역에서 나타난다는 보장은 아니라고 당부했습니다. 그래서 이 글의 요점은 어디서 사고가 날지 맞히는 것이 아니라, 논밭이나 연못에 문제가 생겼을 때 조금이라도 일찍 알고 일찍 대처할 수 있게 하는 것입니다.

2. 각국 뉴스: 농업은 어떤 영향을 받고 있습니까?

동남아시아: 쌀, 사탕수수, 팜유가 가장 먼저 타격

  • Thailand: Krungthai COMPASS, the research unit of Krungthai Bank, estimated in July that from the second half of 2026 to mid-2027, El Niño could cause more than 62 billion baht in agricultural losses, including a rice shortfall of about 5.4 million metric tons, sugarcane of about 12 million metric tons and cassava of about 3.1 million metric tons. In early June, usable water in central reservoirs once fell to only about 28%; after the October rainy season, nationwide reservoir storage has recovered to above 80%, but whether there will be enough water in the dry season still depends on next year's rain. The research unit advises farmers to adopt water-saving methods such as alternate wetting and drying, switch to drought-tolerant varieties, and keep a close eye on weather forecasts.
  • 베트남: 베트남 국가수문기상예보센터는 9월 하순에 중남부, 중부 고원, 남부의 강수량이 20~40% 적을 수 있고 우기가 일찍 끝날 수 있다고 밝혔습니다. 2027년 1~5월에 메콩강에서 베트남으로 들어오는 물의 양이 약 30% 줄 수 있으며, 2~4월 밀물 때는 염수가 내륙으로 수십 km 들어올 수 있습니다. 이는 겨울-봄 벼 수확, 여름-가을 벼 파종, 과수원, 수산 양식, 식수를 위협합니다. 중부 고원에는 관개망 밖에 있는 커피, 후추 등 작물 재배지도 약 73만 5천 헥타르나 됩니다.
  • The Philippines: Philippine media reported in October that rice imports in 2026 may exceed 5 million metric tons, breaking the record set in 2024.
  • 팜유: 인도네시아와 말레이시아가 전 세계 팜유 수출의 약 87%를 차지합니다. 미국 기근조기경보시스템(FEWS NET)의 집계에 따르면 1980년 이후 강한 엘니뇨가 있던 해에 두 나라의 생산량은 평균 약 4% 낮았습니다. 피치(Fitch) 산하 BMI도 말레이시아의 팜유 생산량, 곡물 가격, 전력 공급이 모두 영향을 받을 수 있다고 짚었습니다.

남아시아: 몬순 강수량 부족

Before the season began, the India Meteorological Department forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon would reach only 92% of the long-term average. Indian media report that by the end of the monsoon season, cumulative rainfall was 12.6% below the long-term average, the weakest since 2015, and rainfall in October may also be low. Monsoon rainfall in Pakistan's Sindh, Balochistan and other areas has been clearly below normal, and FEWS NET expects the worst food shortages there to come in January–March 2027.

호주, 아프리카, 중남미

  • Australian wheat: According to FEWS NET, in past El Niño years Australian wheat output has averaged about 15% below trend; however, output in 1986/87, 1997/98 and 2009/10 was close to or above normal, while the two most recent events (2015/16 and 2023/24) were about 12% and 22% lower respectively, which shows the result still depends on the actual rain in the season.
  • Maize in southern Africa: The main maize season is sown in October–December, which coincides with the El Niño peak, and South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and other countries are forecast to be drier than normal. In past El Niño years, South African maize output has averaged about 28% below trend. This year's grain harvest in southern Africa is nearly 10% above the five-year average, so stocks can cushion the shortfall for now, but FEWS NET expects the toughest time to be the lean season from late 2027 to early 2028.
  • 동아프리카: 상황이 양극단입니다. 에티오피아, 남수단, 수단 등은 올해 6~9월 우기가 건조했고, 소말리아와 케냐 등은 10~12월 강수량이 평균의 1.5배 이상에 이를 수 있어 강 주변 저지대에 홍수 위험이 있습니다.
  • 중앙아메리카: 유럽연합 공동연구센터(JRC)는 9월에 "건조 회랑(Dry Corridor)"의 옥수수와 콩 수확이 큰 타격을 입었으며, 온두라스와 엘살바도르가 이미 국가 비상사태를 선포했다고 밝혔습니다.
  • 페루, 에콰도르: 아시아와 반대로 남아메리카 서해안에서는 폭우, 홍수, 산사태를 걱정해야 합니다.

대만과 동아시아

The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. Temperatures over the coming season tend to be warmer than normal, but most of the results are not statistically significant. The Administration also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only and that changes in other climate systems also need to be watched. Weather experts in mainland China have also warned that the spring and summer of 2027 may bring "floods in the south and drought in the north."

Taiwanese farmers are no strangers to water shortages: this spring, rainfall since last autumn and winter was the lowest in about 50 years, and Hsinchu and Miaoli put rotational irrigation in place, with three days of water supply followed by three days without. This time northeastern Taiwan may be drier toward the end of the year, so water needs to be looked after first; if western Taiwan turns wetter next January, milkfish, hard clam and white shrimp ponds in Yunlin, Chiayi and Tainan should watch for salinity suddenly dropping after heavy rain.

전 세계 식량: 총량이 크게 줄지는 않아도 피해는 지역, 소농, 가격에 집중

El Niño does not necessarily cut the world's food supply sharply. Looking back at strong El Niño years since 1980, FEWS NET found that global output of wheat, maize and rice did not change much overall; FEWS NET, citing U.S. Department of Agriculture projections, says that total output of the three major crops in 2026/27 will be about 2.7% lower than last year, still at a historically high level. The ones who really suffer are specific regions: smallholders who depend on rainfall, irrigation districts whose reservoirs have run dry, and countries that rely on imported food. Higher food prices and shortages often do not show up fully until the next harvest after the El Niño peak.

3. 어업과 양식: 바다가 따뜻해지면 물고기도 줄고 산소도 줄어듭니다

Peru: The World's Largest Anchovy Fishery, Halted in the North-Central Region

The cold water off Peru normally supports the world's largest anchovy fishery. El Niño has warmed the sea, so anchovies are retreating toward the coast, to the south and into deeper water, and the share of juveniles is too high; since late May the Peruvian government has repeatedly extended the fishing ban. In mid-October, the Ministry of Production announced that the second fishing season would not open in the north-central fishing zone, citing abnormally warm seawater and breeding indicators below historical levels, and the need to protect the resource first (the second season in the southern fishing zone opened as normal in July). The Peruvian Marine Institute (IMARPE) estimates the anchovy stock in the north-central waters at about 5.12 million metric tons (data as of October 7), about 28% less than the survey at the start of this year (the local summer), with juveniles making up about 80% by number.

이 일은 전 세계 양식 농가와 관련이 있습니다. 페루 안초비는 전 세계 어유의 절반 이상을 공급하고 어분의 중요한 원료이기도 한데, 어분과 어유는 새우 사료와 물고기 사료의 원료입니다. 어획량이 줄면 사료 비용도 압박을 받습니다.

Marine Heatwaves in Many Places: Water Too Hot for Farmed Fish to Cope

  • Pohang, South Korea: In August, a marine heatwave pushed water temperatures off Pohang up to 27.6–28.1°C. Reports in early August already put farmed fish deaths at about 810,000; by the end of August, the cumulative total in Gyeongsangbuk-do was about 2.63 million, of which about 2.52 million were in Pohang, mostly starry flounder (a type of flatfish), which prefers cold water. Local authorities spent about 4 billion won to rush in liquid oxygen and circulation pumps, but these can only add oxygen and cannot lower the water temperature; reports noted that high temperatures weaken the fish's resistance and make them prone to bacterial infection, so adding oxygen alone cannot save them. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that global sea surface temperature in July this year set a record for the month, and reports said El Niño was one of the main causes.
  • 에콰도르: 참치잡이 배의 어획량이 줄어, 물고기를 잡으려면 더 먼 바다까지 나가야 합니다.
  • Coral reefs: In September, many sea areas had already issued severe bleaching alerts.

새우·물고기 양식: 더위, 비, 가뭄의 삼중 압박

The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold; yet at high temperatures the metabolism of fish and shrimp speeds up and they need more oxygen. This shortage on one side and higher demand on the other, together with the fact that at night algae, fish and shrimp only consume oxygen and produce none, is why fish gasp at the surface and die suddenly in the early morning in hot weather. When heavy rain arrives, a large amount of fresh water pours into the pond and salinity and pH change a lot all at once; in a drought, water cannot be replenished and the pond water gets more and more concentrated. At the Global Shrimp Forum in September, weather experts also cautioned that warming seas around Ecuador may at first favor shrimp growth, but heavy rain will lower salinity and flood ponds; in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, temperature and salinity may both rise.

4. 다섯 가지 위험 한눈에 보기

위험올해 뉴스 속 사례농민과 양식 농가에 미치는 영향
가뭄·물 부족Low reservoirs in Thailand in the first half of the year, short monsoon rainfall in India, dry sowing season in southern Africa나눠 쓸 물이 모자라 언제, 얼마나 물을 줄지가 더 중요해집니다. 작물 감산, 늦파종, 작목 전환
고온Marine heatwave in South Korea, global sea surface temperature at a record for July작물 열해와 온실 과열, 양식장 용존산소 감소, 논밭에 나가거나 연못을 돌아보는 사람의 열사병 위험
폭우·침수페루·에콰도르 홍수 위험, 동아프리카 강 주변 저지대논밭 침수, 양식장 제방 넘침으로 인한 물고기 유출, 양수장과 배전함 침수
염수 침입베트남 메콩강 삼각주 2027년 2~4월관개용수와 연못 물이 짜져 벼농사와 민물 양식이 피해를 봄
정전고온으로 전력 수요 급증, 호우·태풍으로 전력 설비 파손산소 공급기와 양수 펌프가 멈추면 몇 시간 안에 손실이 나는 경우가 많음

흔히 놓치는 점이 하나 더 있습니다. 바로 시간 차입니다. 엘니뇨 정점은 올겨울이지만 베트남의 염수 침입 정점은 내년 2~4월이고, 남부 아프리카의 식량 부족 정점은 2027년 말로 더 늦습니다. 다시 말해 지금 준비해도 늦지 않습니다.

5. 농민과 양식 농가가 지금 먼저 할 수 있는 일

  • Use water sparingly and where it counts: Alternate wetting and drying recommended by the Thai research unit (let the water in the field drop to a certain depth below the soil surface before topping it up, rather than keeping the field flooded all the time; but keep shallow water from booting through heading and flowering), switching to drought-tolerant varieties, and scheduling sowing by the weather forecast are all things you can do without spending much.
  • 저수와 배수부터 점검하기: 농업용 연못, 저수조, 배수로, 양수기는 건기 전에 먼저 점검하고, 우기 전에 청소해 두십시오.
  • Lower the risk at fish ponds: Delay stocking or lower the density in ponds not yet stocked, and consider harvesting earlier in batches from ponds already stocked; watch dissolved oxygen in the early morning, cut or stop feeding when it is hot and dissolved oxygen is low, and keep paddlewheels running from night until early morning; have spare aerators and a generator ready, test-run them regularly and keep enough fuel in stock; check salinity and pH more often before and after heavy rain.
  • Make sure someone knows about a power outage: An aerator that stops without anyone noticing is a common and especially regrettable loss.
  • 논밭에 나가는 사람도 챙기기: 더울 때는 한낮을 피하고 물을 자주 마시십시오. 야외 작업의 열 위험은 "WBGT란 무엇입니까" 글을 참고하실 수 있습니다.

6. YenProtek은 어떤 도움이 될 수 있습니까?

엘니뇨가 가져오는 날씨는 누구도 막을 수 없습니다. 할 수 있는 일은 조금 일찍 알고, 오가는 걸음을 줄이고, 켜야 할 장비를 제때 켜는 것입니다. YenProtek이 만드는 것은 거창한 기술이 아니라 농민과 양식 농가가 손에 익혀 쓰는 도구이며, 대부분 기존 설비에 덧붙여 달 수 있습니다.

물이 모자랄 때: 물이 정말 필요한 때에 주기

The FarmerPack is a solar-powered, modular field micro weather station that can measure soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, rainfall and more, with a sampling interval as short as 1 minute, and it can run for more than 30 days without sunlight. Paired with a Smart Control Box, you can set "open the water only when soil moisture is below the set value, and not when it is raining," and there is no need to replace your existing pump motors or solenoid valves. When reservoirs restrict water, no watering is wasted; intermittent irrigation and alternate wetting and drying can also be carried out according to actual conditions in the field (further reading: "What Is Intermittent Irrigation?" and "What Is an Automatic Sprinkler System?").

고온일 때: 더워지면 알리고, 켜야 할 것은 켜기

FarmerPack이 잰 기온이 설정하신 값을 넘으면 휴대전화로 알림이 갑니다. 온실의 팬, 분무기, 차광막 모터를 Smart Control Box에 연결하면 휴대전화로 원격 켜고 끌 수 있고, 온도가 되면 자동으로 켜지도록 설정할 수도 있습니다. 네트워크가 잠시 끊겨도 제어 박스는 클라우드에서 마지막으로 내려받은 설정값대로 계속 작동합니다.

양식장: 용존산소와 수질을 순찰 나가야만 아는 일이 없도록

The AquaPack is a water quality sensing system with a patented circulating self-cleaning design that can continuously measure dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, conductivity, ammonia nitrogen and more. You can see earlier when dissolved oxygen drops in the early morning during a heatwave, when pH changes after heavy rain, or when pond conductivity suddenly rises (often a sign that salt water has entered), and use this as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. To have aerators turn on automatically when dissolved oxygen is low, you need to choose the LoRa communication version and use it with a Smart Control Box; we still recommend that the main aerator run on a night schedule, with the dissolved oxygen rule only switching on additional units. The conductivity measurement range suits freshwater ponds for spotting early signals; for brackish water and seawater, please contact us first about the probe measurement range.

정전과 침수: 경보가 가장 필요한 때에 경보도 전기가 나가면 안 됩니다

In a heatwave, power supply is tight; when typhoons and heavy rain damage power lines, an aerator that stops means a race against time. The Power Outage Alert Module is installed on the power supply line of an aerator or pump and has a built-in battery; choose the NB-IoT version or 4G version with a built-in SIM, and it can still send out the alert throughout the outage (provided the local mobile network still has signal), notifying several people by LINE, SMS, email or voice call. The Flood Alert System notifies managers when the water level reaches the warning value, and can also trigger an audible and visual alarm depending on the plan; paired with a Smart Control Box, it can "turn on the pump when the water level is reached" (further reading: "Flooded and Without Power, Who Will Notify You?" and "A Fish Pond Power Outage Is No Small Matter").

Note: The Smart Control Box only switches power on and off. For high-power or three-phase motors such as aerators, paddlewheels and pumps, have a qualified electrician wire them through an external circuit, and then let the control box switch them on and off; the forward/reverse circuits and limit switches for shade nets and hoist motors should also be wired by the electrician.

어떻게 조합할 수 있습니까?

현장가장 걱정되는 일추천 조합
논, 밭물 부족, 급수 제한, 염수 유입FarmerPack (soil moisture, rainfall, air temperature) + Smart Control Box (pump motors, solenoid valves); if you are concerned about irrigation water turning salty, add an AquaPack to monitor conductivity
온실, 망실고온, 무더위FarmerPack (air temperature, air humidity, light intensity) + Smart Control Box (fans, misters, shade nets)
양식장, 새우 양식장새벽 산소 부족, 폭우 뒤 수질 변화, 정전AquaPack (dissolved oxygen, water temperature, conductivity; please contact us first about the range for brackish-water and seawater ponds) + Power Outage Alert Module, NB-IoT or 4G version + Smart Control Box (spare aerator; main aerator runs on a night schedule)
저지대 논밭, 양수장호우로 인한 물 고임, 제방 넘침침수 경보 시스템 + Smart Control Box(배수용 양수 펌프)

모든 모니터링 데이터는 API와 MCP로 제공할 수 있어 기존 관리 시스템이나 AI 도구에 연결할 수 있습니다. YenProtek의 장비는 대만 팀이 설계·제조하며 해외 고객께는 원격 기술 지원을 제공합니다. 나라마다 통신 주파수 대역, 통신망, 인증 요건이 다르므로 계신 나라와 현장을 알려 주시면 맞는 통신 버전을 확인해 드립니다.

맺음말: 엘니뇨는 막을 수 없지만 한 걸음 일찍 알 수는 있습니다

이번 엘니뇨의 정점은 올겨울이지만 농업과 어업에 미치는 영향은 2027년까지 이어집니다. 베트남의 염수 침입은 내년 봄, 남부 아프리카의 식량 부족은 내년 말, 사료와 곡물 가격의 출렁임은 더 오래갈 수 있습니다. 계절 예보는 "어떻게 될 수 있는지"를 알려 줄 뿐이고, 손실의 크기를 정하는 것은 논밭과 연못에 문제가 생겼을 때 얼마나 빨리 알고 얼마나 빨리 대처하느냐입니다. 내 논밭, 온실, 양식장에 어떻게 조합하면 좋을지 알고 싶으시면 문의하기에서 현장과 계신 나라를 알려 주시거나, 먼저 온라인 견적에서 장비 조합을 골라 보십시오.

FAQ | 엘니뇨와 농어업 자주 묻는 질문

Q1: 엘니뇨 현상이란 무엇이며, 이번에는 얼마나 지속됩니까?

엘니뇨는 적도 중·동부 태평양의 바닷물이 비정상적으로 따뜻해지면서 전 세계 대기와 강수 분포까지 바뀌는 현상입니다. 대만 중앙기상서는 2026년 10월에 이번 엘니뇨가 슈퍼 등급에 이르렀으며, 올겨울에 정점을 찍고 내년 봄까지 이어질 것으로 예상한다고 밝혔습니다. NOAA도 2027년 1분기까지 강한 엘니뇨 이상이 유지될 것으로 내다봅니다. 지역별 작물과 곡물 가격에 미치는 영향은 엘니뇨 정점 다음 계절, 다음 수확 때에야 온전히 드러나는 경우가 많습니다.

Q2: 엘니뇨가 오면 대만은 반드시 가뭄이 듭니까?

Not necessarily. The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. It also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only. A more practical approach is to look at actual conditions in your own field or pond when deciding when to irrigate or change water, rather than relying only on seasonal forecasts.

Q3: 엘니뇨 기간에 양식장에서는 무엇을 특히 조심해야 합니까?

The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold, yet fish and shrimp need more oxygen, so pay particular attention to dissolved oxygen in the early morning when it is hot. Heavy rain or drought makes salinity and pH change faster, and it is dangerous whenever an aerator stops because of a power outage. Water quality sensing can keep track of dissolved oxygen, water temperature and conductivity (for brackish-water and seawater ponds, please contact us first about the probe measurement range), as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. You can also add a Power Outage Alert Module (NB-IoT or 4G version) to the aerator, which can still send an alert after the power goes out.

Q4: YenProtek 장비는 대만 밖의 나라에서도 사용할 수 있습니까?

나라마다 통신 주파수 대역, 통신망, 인증 요건이 다릅니다. 사용하시는 나라와 현장을 알려 주시면 맞는 통신 버전과 공급 방식을 확인해 드립니다. 장비는 대만 팀이 설계·제조하며, 해외 고객께는 원격 기술 지원을 제공합니다.

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