Article Summary | The 2026 El Niño has reached super-strength level: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) published by Taiwan's Central Weather Administration on October 16 has risen to 2.2, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also say it is very likely the strongest since observations began, peaking this winter with effects lasting into 2027. News from around the world already shows the consequences: a Thai research unit estimates that agricultural losses may exceed 62 billion baht, Vietnam is preparing for saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, India's monsoon rainfall fell short, Peru will not open a second anchovy fishing season in its north-central fishing zone, and farmed fish in South Korea died in large numbers during a marine heatwave. This article organizes these reports into five risks: drought and water shortage, high temperatures, heavy rain and flooding, saltwater intrusion, and power outages. It explains what farmers and fish farmers can prepare now and where YenProtek's tools can help. (Data as of October 30, 2026)
1. How Strong Is This El Niño? What Three Agencies Say
El Niño is an unusual warming of the sea in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. When the water warms, the clouds and rain above it move too, so the rainy and dry seasons in many parts of the world differ from the usual: in some places the rain does not come, and in others there is too much.
- NOAA (October 8): In September, the sea surface temperature index for the equatorial Pacific (NOAA's relative index) reached about +2.1°C, and waters near South America were as much as 3.9°C above normal. The chance of reaching "record-breaking strength" in October–December is about 83%, and a strong or stronger El Niño is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2027.
- World Meteorological Organization (late October): It forecasts that from November through January, sea temperatures in the key ocean region may be 3.7–3.8°C above average, peaking around December. The WMO and NOAA calculate on different bases, so the numbers cannot be compared directly, but the conclusion is the same: this is very likely the strongest El Niño since observations began.
- Central Weather Administration (16 October): The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has risen to 2.2, the highest for this time of year since 1950, reaching "super El Niño" level. It is expected to peak in winter and last through next spring.
One thing to remember first: A strong El Niño does not mean every place will definitely have a drought or a flood. NOAA also notes that an outlook only makes a certain kind of weather "more likely" and does not guarantee that it will occur at every location. So the point of this article is not to predict where trouble will happen, but to help you learn about problems in your field or pond earlier, and deal with them earlier, when they arise.
2. News from Around the World: How Is Agriculture Affected?
Southeast Asia: Rice, Sugarcane and Palm Oil Hit First
- Thailand: Krungthai COMPASS, the research unit of Krungthai Bank, estimated in July that from the second half of 2026 to mid-2027, El Niño could cause more than 62 billion baht in agricultural losses, including a rice shortfall of about 5.4 million metric tons, sugarcane of about 12 million metric tons and cassava of about 3.1 million metric tons. In early June, usable water in central reservoirs once fell to only about 28%; after the October rainy season, nationwide reservoir storage has recovered to above 80%, but whether there will be enough water in the dry season still depends on next year's rain. The research unit advises farmers to adopt water-saving methods such as alternate wetting and drying, switch to drought-tolerant varieties, and keep a close eye on weather forecasts.
- Vietnam: In late September, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said rainfall in the south-central region, the Central Highlands and the south may be 20–40% lower, and the rainy season may end early. From January to May 2027, flows of the Mekong into Vietnam may be about 30% lower, and during high tides in February–April, saltwater may reach tens of kilometres inland, threatening the winter-spring rice harvest, the sowing of summer-autumn rice, orchards, aquaculture and drinking water. In the Central Highlands, about 735,000 hectares of coffee, pepper and other crops are also outside the irrigation network.
- The Philippines: Philippine media reported in October that rice imports in 2026 may exceed 5 million metric tons, breaking the record set in 2024.
- Palm oil: Indonesia and Malaysia together account for about 87% of global palm oil exports. According to the U.S. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), in strong El Niño years since 1980, output in the two countries has averaged about 4% below normal. BMI, a Fitch Group company, also cautions that Malaysia's palm oil output, food prices and electricity supply could all be affected.
South Asia: Monsoon Rainfall Falls Short
Before the season began, the India Meteorological Department forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon would reach only 92% of the long-term average. Indian media report that by the end of the monsoon season, cumulative rainfall was 12.6% below the long-term average, the weakest since 2015, and rainfall in October may also be low. Monsoon rainfall in Pakistan's Sindh, Balochistan and other areas has been clearly below normal, and FEWS NET expects the worst food shortages there to come in January–March 2027.
Australia, Africa, Central and South America
- Australian wheat: According to FEWS NET, in past El Niño years Australian wheat output has averaged about 15% below trend; however, output in 1986/87, 1997/98 and 2009/10 was close to or above normal, while the two most recent events (2015/16 and 2023/24) were about 12% and 22% lower respectively, which shows the result still depends on the actual rain in the season.
- Maize in southern Africa: The main maize season is sown in October–December, which coincides with the El Niño peak, and South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and other countries are forecast to be drier than normal. In past El Niño years, South African maize output has averaged about 28% below trend. This year's grain harvest in southern Africa is nearly 10% above the five-year average, so stocks can cushion the shortfall for now, but FEWS NET expects the toughest time to be the lean season from late 2027 to early 2028.
- East Africa: The picture is mixed. In Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and other places, this year's June–September rainy season was drier than normal; in Somalia, Kenya and other places, October–December rainfall may reach at least 1.5 times the average, and there is a flood risk in low-lying areas along rivers.
- Central America: In September, the European Union's Joint Research Centre said that maize and bean harvests in the "Dry Corridor" had been severely hit, and both Honduras and El Salvador have declared national emergencies.
- Peru and Ecuador: Unlike in Asia, what the west coast of South America has to worry about is heavy rain, floods and landslides.
Taiwan and East Asia
The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. Temperatures over the coming season tend to be warmer than normal, but most of the results are not statistically significant. The Administration also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only and that changes in other climate systems also need to be watched. Weather experts in mainland China have also warned that the spring and summer of 2027 may bring "floods in the south and drought in the north."
Taiwanese farmers are no strangers to water shortages: this spring, rainfall since last autumn and winter was the lowest in about 50 years, and Hsinchu and Miaoli put rotational irrigation in place, with three days of water supply followed by three days without. This time northeastern Taiwan may be drier toward the end of the year, so water needs to be looked after first; if western Taiwan turns wetter next January, milkfish, hard clam and white shrimp ponds in Yunlin, Chiayi and Tainan should watch for salinity suddenly dropping after heavy rain.
Global Food: Total Output Does Not Necessarily Fall Sharply, but Regions, Smallholders and Prices Take the Hit
El Niño does not necessarily cut the world's food supply sharply. Looking back at strong El Niño years since 1980, FEWS NET found that global output of wheat, maize and rice did not change much overall; FEWS NET, citing U.S. Department of Agriculture projections, says that total output of the three major crops in 2026/27 will be about 2.7% lower than last year, still at a historically high level. The ones who really suffer are specific regions: smallholders who depend on rainfall, irrigation districts whose reservoirs have run dry, and countries that rely on imported food. Higher food prices and shortages often do not show up fully until the next harvest after the El Niño peak.
3. Fisheries and Aquaculture: Warmer Water Means Fewer Fish and Less Oxygen
Peru: The World's Largest Anchovy Fishery, Halted in the North-Central Region
The cold water off Peru normally supports the world's largest anchovy fishery. El Niño has warmed the sea, so anchovies are retreating toward the coast, to the south and into deeper water, and the share of juveniles is too high; since late May the Peruvian government has repeatedly extended the fishing ban. In mid-October, the Ministry of Production announced that the second fishing season would not open in the north-central fishing zone, citing abnormally warm seawater and breeding indicators below historical levels, and the need to protect the resource first (the second season in the southern fishing zone opened as normal in July). The Peruvian Marine Institute (IMARPE) estimates the anchovy stock in the north-central waters at about 5.12 million metric tons (data as of October 7), about 28% less than the survey at the start of this year (the local summer), with juveniles making up about 80% by number.
This matters to fish farmers all over the world. Peruvian anchovy supplies more than half of the world's fish oil and is also an important source of fishmeal, and fishmeal and fish oil are raw materials for shrimp feed and fish feed. When the catch is smaller, feed costs come under pressure.
Marine Heatwaves in Many Places: Water Too Hot for Farmed Fish to Cope
- Pohang, South Korea: In August, a marine heatwave pushed water temperatures off Pohang up to 27.6–28.1°C. Reports in early August already put farmed fish deaths at about 810,000; by the end of August, the cumulative total in Gyeongsangbuk-do was about 2.63 million, of which about 2.52 million were in Pohang, mostly starry flounder (a type of flatfish), which prefers cold water. Local authorities spent about 4 billion won to rush in liquid oxygen and circulation pumps, but these can only add oxygen and cannot lower the water temperature; reports noted that high temperatures weaken the fish's resistance and make them prone to bacterial infection, so adding oxygen alone cannot save them. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that global sea surface temperature in July this year set a record for the month, and reports said El Niño was one of the main causes.
- Ecuador: Tuna boats are landing less and must go farther out to sea to find fish.
- Coral reefs: In September, many sea areas had already issued severe bleaching alerts.
Shrimp and Fish Farming: Squeezed by Heat, Rain and Drought
The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold; yet at high temperatures the metabolism of fish and shrimp speeds up and they need more oxygen. This shortage on one side and higher demand on the other, together with the fact that at night algae, fish and shrimp only consume oxygen and produce none, is why fish gasp at the surface and die suddenly in the early morning in hot weather. When heavy rain arrives, a large amount of fresh water pours into the pond and salinity and pH change a lot all at once; in a drought, water cannot be replenished and the pond water gets more and more concentrated. At the Global Shrimp Forum in September, weather experts also cautioned that warming seas around Ecuador may at first favor shrimp growth, but heavy rain will lower salinity and flood ponds; in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, temperature and salinity may both rise.
4. The Five Risks at a Glance
| Risk | Examples from This Year's News | Impact on Farmers and Fish Farmers |
|---|---|---|
| Drought and water shortage | Low reservoirs in Thailand in the first half of the year, short monsoon rainfall in India, dry sowing season in southern Africa | Not enough water to go around, so when to irrigate and how much matters more; crop yields fall, planting is delayed or switched to other crops |
| High temperatures | Marine heatwave in South Korea, global sea surface temperature at a record for July | Heat damage to crops, overheated greenhouses; dissolved oxygen drops in fish ponds; people working in the field or patrolling ponds are also prone to heat illness |
| Heavy rain and flooding | Flood risk in Peru and Ecuador, low-lying riverside areas in East Africa | Waterlogged fields, fish ponds overflowing and fish escaping, pumping stations and distribution boxes under water |
| Saltwater intrusion | Vietnam's Mekong Delta, February–April 2027 | Irrigation water and pond water turn salty, harming rice and freshwater aquaculture |
| Power outages | Heavy electricity demand in the heat; heavy rain and typhoons damage power facilities | Once aerators and pumps stop, losses often happen within a few hours |
One more thing is often overlooked: the time lag. The El Niño peak is this winter, but the salinisation peak in Vietnam comes in February–April next year, and the food shortage peak in southern Africa comes even later, at the end of 2027. In other words, it is still not too late to prepare now.
5. What Farmers and Fish Farmers Can Do Now
- Use water sparingly and where it counts: Alternate wetting and drying recommended by the Thai research unit (let the water in the field drop to a certain depth below the soil surface before topping it up, rather than keeping the field flooded all the time; but keep shallow water from booting through heading and flowering), switching to drought-tolerant varieties, and scheduling sowing by the weather forecast are all things you can do without spending much.
- Check water storage and drainage first: Check farm ponds, reservoirs, drainage ditches and pumps before the dry season, and clear them out before the rainy season.
- Lower the risk at fish ponds: Delay stocking or lower the density in ponds not yet stocked, and consider harvesting earlier in batches from ponds already stocked; watch dissolved oxygen in the early morning, cut or stop feeding when it is hot and dissolved oxygen is low, and keep paddlewheels running from night until early morning; have spare aerators and a generator ready, test-run them regularly and keep enough fuel in stock; check salinity and pH more often before and after heavy rain.
- Make sure someone knows about a power outage: An aerator that stops without anyone noticing is a common and especially regrettable loss.
- Look after the people in the field too: In hot weather, avoid the middle of the day and drink more water. For heat hazards in outdoor work, see "What Is WBGT?".
6. How Can YenProtek Help?
No one can stop the weather El Niño brings. What you can do is find out earlier, make fewer trips, and have the right equipment switch on on time. YenProtek does not offer fancy technology; we make practical tools that farmers and fish farmers can put to work easily, and most of them can be added to the equipment you already have.
When Water Is Short: Give Water Only When It Is Really Needed
The FarmerPack is a solar-powered, modular field micro weather station that can measure soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, rainfall and more, with a sampling interval as short as 1 minute, and it can run for more than 30 days without sunlight. Paired with a Smart Control Box, you can set "open the water only when soil moisture is below the set value, and not when it is raining," and there is no need to replace your existing pump motors or solenoid valves. When reservoirs restrict water, no watering is wasted; intermittent irrigation and alternate wetting and drying can also be carried out according to actual conditions in the field (further reading: "What Is Intermittent Irrigation?" and "What Is an Automatic Sprinkler System?").
When It Is Hot: Get a Notification, and Switch On What Needs to Be On
When the air temperature measured by the FarmerPack goes above the value you set, your phone receives a notification. Greenhouse fans, misters and shade-net motors connected to a Smart Control Box can be switched on and off remotely from your phone, or set to start automatically when the temperature is reached. If the network goes down for a while, the control box keeps running on the settings it last downloaded from the cloud.
Fish Ponds: Dissolved Oxygen and Water Quality, Without Waiting for a Patrol to Find Out
The AquaPack is a water quality sensing system with a patented circulating self-cleaning design that can continuously measure dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, conductivity, ammonia nitrogen and more. You can see earlier when dissolved oxygen drops in the early morning during a heatwave, when pH changes after heavy rain, or when pond conductivity suddenly rises (often a sign that salt water has entered), and use this as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. To have aerators turn on automatically when dissolved oxygen is low, you need to choose the LoRa communication version and use it with a Smart Control Box; we still recommend that the main aerator run on a night schedule, with the dissolved oxygen rule only switching on additional units. The conductivity measurement range suits freshwater ponds for spotting early signals; for brackish water and seawater, please contact us first about the probe measurement range.
Power Outages and Floods: When You Need an Alert Most, the Alert Must Not Lose Power Too
In a heatwave, power supply is tight; when typhoons and heavy rain damage power lines, an aerator that stops means a race against time. The Power Outage Alert Module is installed on the power supply line of an aerator or pump and has a built-in battery; choose the NB-IoT version or 4G version with a built-in SIM, and it can still send out the alert throughout the outage (provided the local mobile network still has signal), notifying several people by LINE, SMS, email or voice call. The Flood Alert System notifies managers when the water level reaches the warning value, and can also trigger an audible and visual alarm depending on the plan; paired with a Smart Control Box, it can "turn on the pump when the water level is reached" (further reading: "Flooded and Without Power, Who Will Notify You?" and "A Fish Pond Power Outage Is No Small Matter").
Note: The Smart Control Box only switches power on and off. For high-power or three-phase motors such as aerators, paddlewheels and pumps, have a qualified electrician wire them through an external circuit, and then let the control box switch them on and off; the forward/reverse circuits and limit switches for shade nets and hoist motors should also be wired by the electrician.
How Can They Be Combined?
| Site | Biggest Concern | Suggested Combination |
|---|---|---|
| Rice paddies and dryland fields | Water shortage, water restrictions, saltwater coming in | FarmerPack (soil moisture, rainfall, air temperature) + Smart Control Box (pump motors, solenoid valves); if you are concerned about irrigation water turning salty, add an AquaPack to monitor conductivity |
| Greenhouses and net houses | Heat and stuffy air | FarmerPack (air temperature, air humidity, light intensity) + Smart Control Box (fans, misters, shade nets) |
| Fish ponds and shrimp ponds | Low oxygen in the early morning, water quality changes after heavy rain, power outages | AquaPack (dissolved oxygen, water temperature, conductivity; please contact us first about the range for brackish-water and seawater ponds) + Power Outage Alert Module, NB-IoT or 4G version + Smart Control Box (spare aerator; main aerator runs on a night schedule) |
| Low-lying fields and pumping stations | Water ponding and overflowing banks in heavy rain | Flood Alert System + Smart Control Box (drainage pump) |
All monitoring data can be provided through an API and MCP for connection to existing management systems or AI tools. YenProtek equipment is designed and manufactured by our team in Taiwan, and overseas customers receive remote technical support. Frequency bands, telecom networks and certification requirements differ from country to country, so please tell us your country and site and we will confirm a suitable communication version.
Conclusion: El Niño Cannot Be Stopped, but You Can Know a Step Earlier
The peak of this El Niño is this winter, but its effects on agriculture and fisheries will continue through 2027: salinisation in Vietnam next spring, food shortages in southern Africa at the end of next year, and swings in feed and food prices may last even longer. Seasonal forecasts tell us what "may" happen; what really decides the size of the loss is how quickly you find out, and how quickly you respond, when something goes wrong in a field or pond. To find out how to set up your own field, greenhouse or fish pond, please go to Contact Us and tell us your site and country, or first choose an equipment combination in Online Quote.
FAQ | Common Questions About El Niño and Agriculture and Fisheries
Q1: What is El Niño, and how long will this one last?
El Niño is an unusual warming of the sea in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which in turn changes the atmosphere and rainfall patterns around the world. In October 2026, Taiwan's Central Weather Administration said this El Niño had reached super-strength level, was expected to peak this winter and last through next spring; NOAA also expects a strong or stronger El Niño to continue through the first quarter of 2027. The effects on crops and food prices often do not show up fully until the season after the peak, or the next harvest.
Q2: Will El Niño definitely cause drought in Taiwan?
Not necessarily. The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. It also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only. A more practical approach is to look at actual conditions in your own field or pond when deciding when to irrigate or change water, rather than relying only on seasonal forecasts.
Q3: What should fish farmers watch out for during El Niño?
The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold, yet fish and shrimp need more oxygen, so pay particular attention to dissolved oxygen in the early morning when it is hot. Heavy rain or drought makes salinity and pH change faster, and it is dangerous whenever an aerator stops because of a power outage. Water quality sensing can keep track of dissolved oxygen, water temperature and conductivity (for brackish-water and seawater ponds, please contact us first about the probe measurement range), as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. You can also add a Power Outage Alert Module (NB-IoT or 4G version) to the aerator, which can still send an alert after the power goes out.
Q4: Can YenProtek equipment be used outside Taiwan?
Connection frequency bands, telecom networks and certification requirements differ from country to country. Tell us the country and the site where you will use it, and we will confirm a suitable communication version and how it can be supplied. The equipment is designed and manufactured by our team in Taiwan, and overseas customers receive remote technical support.
Sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center October 2026 El Niño outlook (compiled by The Watchers)
- World Meteorological Organization winter outlook (The Weather Channel, 2026-10-22)
- Central Weather Administration: super El Niño to last until next spring (United Daily News, 2026-10-16)
- Central Weather Administration rainfall outlook for Taiwan for the coming season (PChome News, 2026-10-16)
- Krungthai COMPASS estimates Thailand's agricultural losses (The Nation, 2026-07-09)
- Thailand's reservoir storage recovers in October (The Nation, 2026-10)
- Vietnam responds to El Niño and Mekong salinisation (Việt Nam News, 2026-09-26)
- Philippine rice imports may exceed 5 million metric tons (Context.ph, 2026-10-07)
- BMI: El Niño threatens Malaysia's palm oil, food prices and electricity (Business Today, 2026-10-26)
- FEWS NET: 2026–2027 El Niño food security special report (2026-10)
- EU Joint Research Centre: crop failures in Central America and East Africa (2026-09-03)
- India's 2026 monsoon forecast below normal (Outlook Business)
- India's 2026 monsoon ends with 12.6% less rainfall (DSIJ)
- Peru's Ministry of Production: second anchovy fishing season will not open in the north-central fishing zone (Forbes Perú, 2026-10-16)
- Peru opens second anchovy fishing season in the southern fishing zone (El Peruano)
- Peru's anchovy fishing seasons and the global fish oil supply (NutraIngredients, 2026-10-19)
- Marine heatwave in Pohang, South Korea kills farmed fish (Tech Times, 2026-08-10)
- Gyeongsangbuk-do statistics on farmed fish deaths from high water temperatures in August (Kyongbuk Maeil, 2026-09-01)
- El Niño in 2026 already affecting shipping, fish stocks and heat (The Conversation, 2026-09-10)
- Different El Niño risks for shrimp farms (The Fish Site, 2026-09-09)
- Taiwan's autumn–winter rainfall lowest in about 50 years; rotational irrigation in Hsinchu and Miaoli (Taipei Times, 2026-03-19)
- Mainland China warns of "floods in the south, drought in the north" in 2027 (ETtoday, 2026-10-14)
