O super El Niño de 2026 chegou: o que as notícias do mundo mostram sobre o impacto na agricultura e na pesca, e como responder

I. Quão forte é este El Niño? O que dizem três instituições

O El Niño é um aquecimento anormal da água no Pacífico equatorial central e oriental. Quando a água esquenta, as nuvens e a chuva sobre ela se deslocam, e em muitos lugares do mundo as estações chuvosas e secas deixam de ser as de sempre: em alguns lugares não chove, em outros chove demais.

• NOAA (October 8): In September, the sea surface temperature index for the equatorial Pacific (NOAA's relative index) reached about +2.1°C, and waters near South America were as much as 3.9°C above normal. The chance of reaching "record-breaking strength" in October–December is about 83%, and a strong or stronger El Niño is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2027.
• World Meteorological Organization (late October): It forecasts that from November through January, sea temperatures in the key ocean region may be 3.7–3.8°C above average, peaking around December. The WMO and NOAA calculate on different bases, so the numbers cannot be compared directly, but the conclusion is the same: this is very likely the strongest El Niño since observations began.
• Central Weather Administration (16 de outubro): o índice oceânico do El Niño (ONI) mais recente subiu para 2,2, o mais alto para esta época desde 1950, atingindo o nível de "super El Niño"; a previsão é de pico no inverno e duração até a primavera do próximo ano.

II. Notícias de vários países: como a agricultura é afetada?

Sudeste Asiático: arroz, cana-de-açúcar e óleo de palma são os primeiros atingidos

• Thailand: Krungthai COMPASS, the research unit of Krungthai Bank, estimated in July that from the second half of 2026 to mid-2027, El Niño could cause more than 62 billion baht in agricultural losses, including a rice shortfall of about 5.4 million metric tons, sugarcane of about 12 million metric tons and cassava of about 3.1 million metric tons. In early June, usable water in central reservoirs once fell to only about 28%; after the October rainy season, nationwide reservoir storage has recovered to above 80%, but whether there will be enough water in the dry season still depends on next year's rain. The research unit advises farmers to adopt water-saving methods such as alternate wetting and drying, switch to drought-tolerant varieties, and keep a close eye on weather forecasts.
• Vietnã: no fim de setembro, o Centro Nacional de Previsão Hidrometeorológica informou que no centro-sul, nas Terras Altas Centrais e no sul as chuvas podem ser de 20 a 40% menores e que a estação chuvosa pode terminar mais cedo. De janeiro a maio de 2027, a vazão do Mekong que entra no Vietnã pode ser cerca de 30% menor, e na maré alta de fevereiro a abril a água salgada pode avançar dezenas de quilômetros terra adentro, ameaçando a colheita de arroz de inverno-primavera, o plantio de verão-outono, os pomares, a aquicultura e a água potável. Além disso, nas Terras Altas Centrais cerca de 735 mil hectares de café, pimenta e outras culturas estão fora da rede de irrigação.
• The Philippines: Philippine media reported in October that rice imports in 2026 may exceed 5 million metric tons, breaking the record set in 2024.
• Óleo de palma: Indonésia e Malásia respondem por cerca de 87% das exportações mundiais de óleo de palma. Segundo a rede de alerta antecipado de fome dos EUA (FEWS NET), nos anos de El Niño forte desde 1980 a produção dos dois países ficou em média cerca de 4% abaixo do normal. A BMI, da Fitch, também alerta que a produção de óleo de palma, os preços dos alimentos e o fornecimento de energia da Malásia podem ser afetados.

Sul da Ásia: chuvas de monção escassas

Before the season began, the India Meteorological Department forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon would reach only 92% of the long-term average. Indian media report that by the end of the monsoon season, cumulative rainfall was 12.6% below the long-term average, the weakest since 2015, and rainfall in October may also be low. Monsoon rainfall in Pakistan's Sindh, Balochistan and other areas has been clearly below normal, and FEWS NET expects the worst food shortages there to come in January–March 2027.

Austrália, África, América Central e América do Sul

• Australian wheat: According to FEWS NET, in past El Niño years Australian wheat output has averaged about 15% below trend; however, output in 1986/87, 1997/98 and 2009/10 was close to or above normal, while the two most recent events (2015/16 and 2023/24) were about 12% and 22% lower respectively, which shows the result still depends on the actual rain in the season.
• Maize in southern Africa: The main maize season is sown in October–December, which coincides with the El Niño peak, and South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and other countries are forecast to be drier than normal. In past El Niño years, South African maize output has averaged about 28% below trend. This year's grain harvest in southern Africa is nearly 10% above the five-year average, so stocks can cushion the shortfall for now, but FEWS NET expects the toughest time to be the lean season from late 2027 to early 2028.
• África Oriental: a situação é de extremos opostos. Na Etiópia, no Sudão do Sul, no Sudão e em outros lugares a estação chuvosa de junho a setembro deste ano foi mais seca que o normal; na Somália, no Quênia e em outros, as chuvas de outubro a dezembro podem chegar a uma vez e meia a média ou mais, com risco de enchentes nas áreas baixas ao longo dos rios.
• América Central: em setembro, o Centro Comum de Pesquisa da União Europeia apontou que as colheitas de milho e feijão do "Corredor Seco" foram duramente atingidas, e que Honduras e El Salvador já declararam estado de emergência nacional.
• Peru e Equador: ao contrário da Ásia, na costa oeste da América do Sul a preocupação são as chuvas intensas, as enchentes e os deslizamentos de terra e huaicos.

Taiwan e Leste da Ásia

The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. Temperatures over the coming season tend to be warmer than normal, but most of the results are not statistically significant. The Administration also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only and that changes in other climate systems also need to be watched. Weather experts in mainland China have also warned that the spring and summer of 2027 may bring "floods in the south and drought in the north."

Taiwanese farmers are no strangers to water shortages: this spring, rainfall since last autumn and winter was the lowest in about 50 years, and Hsinchu and Miaoli put rotational irrigation in place, with three days of water supply followed by three days without. This time northeastern Taiwan may be drier toward the end of the year, so water needs to be looked after first; if western Taiwan turns wetter next January, milkfish, hard clam and white shrimp ponds in Yunlin, Chiayi and Tainan should watch for salinity suddenly dropping after heavy rain.

Alimentos no mundo: o total não necessariamente cai muito; o dano está nas regiões, nos pequenos produtores e nos preços

El Niño does not necessarily cut the world's food supply sharply. Looking back at strong El Niño years since 1980, FEWS NET found that global output of wheat, maize and rice did not change much overall; FEWS NET, citing U.S. Department of Agriculture projections, says that total output of the three major crops in 2026/27 will be about 2.7% lower than last year, still at a historically high level. The ones who really suffer are specific regions: smallholders who depend on rainfall, irrigation districts whose reservoirs have run dry, and countries that rely on imported food. Higher food prices and shortages often do not show up fully until the next harvest after the El Niño peak.

III. Pesca e aquicultura: com o mar mais quente, há menos peixes e menos oxigênio

Peru: The World's Largest Anchovy Fishery, Halted in the North-Central Region

The cold water off Peru normally supports the world's largest anchovy fishery. El Niño has warmed the sea, so anchovies are retreating toward the coast, to the south and into deeper water, and the share of juveniles is too high; since late May the Peruvian government has repeatedly extended the fishing ban. In mid-October, the Ministry of Production announced that the second fishing season would not open in the north-central fishing zone, citing abnormally warm seawater and breeding indicators below historical levels, and the need to protect the resource first (the second season in the southern fishing zone opened as normal in July). The Peruvian Marine Institute (IMARPE) estimates the anchovy stock in the north-central waters at about 5.12 million metric tons (data as of October 7), about 28% less than the survey at the start of this year (the local summer), with juveniles making up about 80% by number.

Isso interessa a aquicultores do mundo todo. A anchoveta peruana fornece mais da metade do óleo de peixe do mundo e é uma fonte importante de farinha de peixe, e a farinha e o óleo de peixe são matérias-primas da ração de camarões e peixes. Com menos pescado, o custo da ração também fica sob pressão.

Marine Heatwaves in Many Places: Water Too Hot for Farmed Fish to Cope

• Pohang, South Korea: In August, a marine heatwave pushed water temperatures off Pohang up to 27.6–28.1°C. Reports in early August already put farmed fish deaths at about 810,000; by the end of August, the cumulative total in Gyeongsangbuk-do was about 2.63 million, of which about 2.52 million were in Pohang, mostly starry flounder (a type of flatfish), which prefers cold water. Local authorities spent about 4 billion won to rush in liquid oxygen and circulation pumps, but these can only add oxygen and cannot lower the water temperature; reports noted that high temperatures weaken the fish's resistance and make them prone to bacterial infection, so adding oxygen alone cannot save them. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that global sea surface temperature in July this year set a record for the month, and reports said El Niño was one of the main causes.
• Equador: os barcos atuneiros capturam menos e precisam ir a águas mais distantes para conseguir pescar.
• Coral reefs: In September, many sea areas had already issued severe bleaching alerts.

Camarões e peixes de cultivo: calor, chuva e seca ao mesmo tempo

The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold; yet at high temperatures the metabolism of fish and shrimp speeds up and they need more oxygen. This shortage on one side and higher demand on the other, together with the fact that at night algae, fish and shrimp only consume oxygen and produce none, is why fish gasp at the surface and die suddenly in the early morning in hot weather. When heavy rain arrives, a large amount of fresh water pours into the pond and salinity and pH change a lot all at once; in a drought, water cannot be replenished and the pond water gets more and more concentrated. At the Global Shrimp Forum in September, weather experts also cautioned that warming seas around Ecuador may at first favor shrimp growth, but heavy rain will lower salinity and flood ponds; in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, temperature and salinity may both rise.

IV. Os cinco riscos num só lugar

Há ainda um ponto que muitas vezes passa despercebido: a defasagem no tempo. O pico do El Niño é neste inverno, mas o pico da salinização no Vietnã vem de fevereiro a abril do próximo ano, e o pico da falta de alimentos no sul da África chega ainda mais tarde, no fim de 2027. Ou seja, ainda dá tempo de se preparar.

V. O que agricultores e aquicultores podem fazer desde já

• Use water sparingly and where it counts: Alternate wetting and drying recommended by the Thai research unit (let the water in the field drop to a certain depth below the soil surface before topping it up, rather than keeping the field flooded all the time; but keep shallow water from booting through heading and flowering), switching to drought-tolerant varieties, and scheduling sowing by the weather forecast are all things you can do without spending much.
• Verificar primeiro o armazenamento e a drenagem: antes da estação seca, verifique os açudes, os reservatórios, as valas de drenagem e as bombas, e limpe-os antes da estação chuvosa.
• Lower the risk at fish ponds: Delay stocking or lower the density in ponds not yet stocked, and consider harvesting earlier in batches from ponds already stocked; watch dissolved oxygen in the early morning, cut or stop feeding when it is hot and dissolved oxygen is low, and keep paddlewheels running from night until early morning; have spare aerators and a generator ready, test-run them regularly and keep enough fuel in stock; check salinity and pH more often before and after heavy rain.
• Make sure someone knows about a power outage: An aerator that stops without anyone noticing is a common and especially regrettable loss.
• Cuide também de quem trabalha no campo: no calor, evite o meio-dia e beba mais água; sobre o risco de calor no trabalho ao ar livre, consulte «O que é o WBGT?».

VI. Em que a YenProtek pode ajudar?

O tempo que o El Niño traz ninguém consegue impedir; o que dá para fazer é saber mais cedo, ir menos vezes ao campo e fazer o equipamento certo ligar na hora certa. O que a YenProtek faz não é tecnologia sofisticada, e sim ferramentas práticas, à mão de agricultores e aquicultores, e a maioria pode ser instalada nos equipamentos que você já tem.

Quando falta água: irrigar só quando realmente precisa

The FarmerPack is a solar-powered, modular field micro weather station that can measure soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, rainfall and more, with a sampling interval as short as 1 minute, and it can run for more than 30 days without sunlight. Paired with a Smart Control Box, you can set "open the water only when soil moisture is below the set value, and not when it is raining," and there is no need to replace your existing pump motors or solenoid valves. When reservoirs restrict water, no watering is wasted; intermittent irrigation and alternate wetting and drying can also be carried out according to actual conditions in the field (further reading: "What Is Intermittent Irrigation?" and "What Is an Automatic Sprinkler System?").

Quando faz calor: avisar ao chegar no limite e ligar o que for preciso

Se a temperatura do ar medida pelo FarmerPack passar do valor que você definiu, seu celular recebe uma notificação; os ventiladores, nebulizadores e motores de tela de sombreamento da estufa, ligados ao Smart Control Box, podem ser ligados e desligados à distância pelo celular, e também podem ser programados para entrar em funcionamento sozinhos ao atingir certa temperatura. Se a rede cair por um momento, o controle continua funcionando com a última configuração baixada da nuvem.

Viveiro de peixes: oxigênio dissolvido e qualidade da água, sem esperar pela ronda

The AquaPack is a water quality sensing system with a patented circulating self-cleaning design that can continuously measure dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, conductivity, ammonia nitrogen and more. You can see earlier when dissolved oxygen drops in the early morning during a heatwave, when pH changes after heavy rain, or when pond conductivity suddenly rises (often a sign that salt water has entered), and use this as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. To have aerators turn on automatically when dissolved oxygen is low, you need to choose the LoRa communication version and use it with a Smart Control Box; we still recommend that the main aerator run on a night schedule, with the dissolved oxygen rule only switching on additional units. The conductivity measurement range suits freshwater ponds for spotting early signals; for brackish water and seawater, please contact us first about the probe measurement range.

Quedas de energia e enchentes: quando mais se precisa do alarme, ele não pode ficar sem energia

In a heatwave, power supply is tight; when typhoons and heavy rain damage power lines, an aerator that stops means a race against time. The Power Outage Alert Module is installed on the power supply line of an aerator or pump and has a built-in battery; choose the NB-IoT version or 4G version with a built-in SIM, and it can still send out the alert throughout the outage (provided the local mobile network still has signal), notifying several people by LINE, SMS, email or voice call. The Flood Alert System notifies managers when the water level reaches the warning value, and can also trigger an audible and visual alarm depending on the plan; paired with a Smart Control Box, it can "turn on the pump when the water level is reached" (further reading: "Flooded and Without Power, Who Will Notify You?" and "A Fish Pond Power Outage Is No Small Matter").

Como combinar?

Todos os dados de monitoramento podem ser disponibilizados por API e MCP, para integração ao sistema de gestão que você já usa ou a ferramentas de IA. Os equipamentos da YenProtek são projetados e fabricados por uma equipe em Taiwan, com suporte técnico remoto para clientes no exterior; as faixas de conexão, as redes de telecomunicações e as exigências de certificação variam de país para país, então informe seu país e o local de uso e confirmaremos a versão de comunicação adequada.

Conclusão: não dá para impedir o El Niño, mas dá para saber um passo antes

O pico deste El Niño é neste inverno, mas seu efeito na agricultura e na pesca se estenderá até 2027: a salinização no Vietnã será na primavera do próximo ano, a falta de alimentos no sul da África no fim do próximo ano, e as oscilações nos preços da ração e dos alimentos podem durar mais. As previsões sazonais nos dizem o que "pode" acontecer; o que realmente decide o tamanho do prejuízo é a rapidez com que você fica sabendo e age quando algo acontece no seu campo ou viveiro. Se quiser saber como combinar os equipamentos para sua lavoura, estufa ou viveiro, escreva para nós em Contato informando o local e o país, ou escolha antes uma combinação de equipamentos em Orçamento online.

FAQ | Perguntas frequentes sobre o El Niño, a agricultura e a pesca

P1: O que é o El Niño e quanto tempo vai durar desta vez?

O El Niño é um aquecimento anormal da água no Pacífico equatorial central e oriental, que muda a atmosfera e a distribuição das chuvas no mundo todo. Em outubro de 2026, a Central Weather Administration (CWA) de Taiwan informou que este episódio já atingiu a categoria de "super El Niño", com previsão de pico neste inverno e de duração até a primavera do próximo ano; a NOAA também prevê que ele continue em nível forte ou superior até o primeiro trimestre de 2027. O efeito nas lavouras e nos preços dos alimentos costuma aparecer por completo na temporada seguinte ao pico, ou seja, na próxima colheita.

P2: O El Niño sempre causa seca em Taiwan?

Not necessarily. The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. It also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only. A more practical approach is to look at actual conditions in your own field or pond when deciding when to irrigate or change water, rather than relying only on seasonal forecasts.

P3: Durante o El Niño, a que você deve prestar atenção especial em um viveiro de peixes?

The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold, yet fish and shrimp need more oxygen, so pay particular attention to dissolved oxygen in the early morning when it is hot. Heavy rain or drought makes salinity and pH change faster, and it is dangerous whenever an aerator stops because of a power outage. Water quality sensing can keep track of dissolved oxygen, water temperature and conductivity (for brackish-water and seawater ponds, please contact us first about the probe measurement range), as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. You can also add a Power Outage Alert Module (NB-IoT or 4G version) to the aerator, which can still send an alert after the power goes out.

P4: Os equipamentos da YenProtek podem ser usados em outros países além de Taiwan?

As faixas de conexão, as redes de telecomunicações e as exigências de certificação variam de país para país. Informe-nos o país e o local de uso, e confirmaremos a versão de comunicação adequada e a forma de fornecimento. Os equipamentos são projetados e fabricados por uma equipe em Taiwan, e os clientes no exterior contam com suporte técnico remoto.

Fontes

• Perspectiva do El Niño de outubro de 2026 do Centro de Previsão do Clima da NOAA (resumo do The Watchers)
• Perspectiva de inverno da Organização Meteorológica Mundial (The Weather Channel, 2026-10-22)
• Central Weather Administration: o super El Niño vai durar até a próxima primavera (United Daily News, 2026-10-16)
• Perspectiva de chuvas da Central Weather Administration para o próximo trimestre em Taiwan (PChome News, 2026-10-16)
• Estimativa da Krungthai COMPASS sobre as perdas agrícolas da Tailândia (The Nation, 2026-07-09)
• Thailand's reservoir storage recovers in October (The Nation, 2026-10)
• Vietnã diante do El Niño e da salinização do Mekong (Việt Nam News, 2026-09-26)
• Philippine rice imports may exceed 5 million metric tons (Context.ph, 2026-10-07)
• BMI: El Niño ameaça o óleo de palma, os preços dos alimentos e a energia da Malásia (Business Today, 2026-10-26)
• FEWS NET: relatório especial de segurança alimentar sobre o El Niño 2026-2027 (2026-10)
• Centro Comum de Pesquisa da UE: quebra de safras na América Central e na África Oriental (2026-09-03)
• Previsão de monção de 2026 na Índia abaixo do normal (Outlook Business)
• India's 2026 monsoon ends with 12.6% less rainfall (DSIJ)
• Peru's Ministry of Production: second anchovy fishing season will not open in the north-central fishing zone (Forbes Perú, 2026-10-16)
• Peru opens second anchovy fishing season in the southern fishing zone (El Peruano)
• Peru's anchovy fishing seasons and the global fish oil supply (NutraIngredients, 2026-10-19)
• Onda de calor marinha em Pohang, na Coreia do Sul, causa mortandade de peixes de cultivo (Tech Times, 2026-08-10)
• Gyeongsangbuk-do statistics on farmed fish deaths from high water temperatures in August (Kyongbuk Maeil, 2026-09-01)
• El Niño in 2026 already affecting shipping, fish stocks and heat (The Conversation, 2026-09-10)
• Different El Niño risks for shrimp farms (The Fish Site, 2026-09-09)
• Taiwan's autumn–winter rainfall lowest in about 50 years; rotational irrigation in Hsinchu and Miaoli (Taipei Times, 2026-03-19)
• China continental alerta para "enchentes no sul e seca no norte" em 2027 (ETtoday, 2026-10-14)