Article Summary | The 2026 El Niño has reached super-strength level: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) published by Taiwan's Central Weather Administration on October 16 has risen to 2.2, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also say it is very likely the strongest since observations began, peaking this winter with effects lasting into 2027. News from around the world already shows the consequences: a Thai research unit estimates that agricultural losses may exceed 62 billion baht, Vietnam is preparing for saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, India's monsoon rainfall fell short, Peru will not open a second anchovy fishing season in its north-central fishing zone, and farmed fish in South Korea died in large numbers during a marine heatwave. This article organizes these reports into five risks: drought and water shortage, high temperatures, heavy rain and flooding, saltwater intrusion, and power outages. It explains what farmers and fish farmers can prepare now and where YenProtek's tools can help. (Data as of October 30, 2026)

1. 今回のエルニーニョはどれほど強いのか？3つの機関の見解

エルニーニョ（El Niño）は、赤道付近の太平洋中部・東部で海水温が異常に高くなる現象です。海水が温まると、その上の雲や雨も一緒に移動し、世界の多くの場所で雨季や乾季がいつもと違ってきます。雨が降らない場所もあれば、降りすぎる場所もあります。

  • NOAA (October 8): In September, the sea surface temperature index for the equatorial Pacific (NOAA's relative index) reached about +2.1°C, and waters near South America were as much as 3.9°C above normal. The chance of reaching "record-breaking strength" in October–December is about 83%, and a strong or stronger El Niño is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2027.
  • World Meteorological Organization (late October): It forecasts that from November through January, sea temperatures in the key ocean region may be 3.7–3.8°C above average, peaking around December. The WMO and NOAA calculate on different bases, so the numbers cannot be compared directly, but the conclusion is the same: this is very likely the strongest El Niño since observations began.
  • 台湾の中央気象署（10月16日）：最新の海洋ニーニョ指数（ONI）は2.2に上がり、1950年以降の同時期で最高となって、「スーパーエルニーニョ」級に達しました。冬にピークを迎え、来年の春まで続くと予測しています。

まず覚えておいていただきたいこと：エルニーニョが強いからといって、どこでも必ず干ばつになる、あるいは必ず浸水するわけではありません。NOAAも、見通しは特定の天気が「起きやすくなる」ことを示すだけで、すべての場所で起きるとは限らないと注意しています。ですからこの記事の狙いは、どこで何が起きるかを予測することではありません。田んぼや池で何かあったとき、早く気づいて早く対処できるようにすることです。

2. 各国のニュース：農業にどんな影響が出ているか？

東南アジア：コメ、サトウキビ、パーム油がまず打撃を受ける

  • Thailand: Krungthai COMPASS, the research unit of Krungthai Bank, estimated in July that from the second half of 2026 to mid-2027, El Niño could cause more than 62 billion baht in agricultural losses, including a rice shortfall of about 5.4 million metric tons, sugarcane of about 12 million metric tons and cassava of about 3.1 million metric tons. In early June, usable water in central reservoirs once fell to only about 28%; after the October rainy season, nationwide reservoir storage has recovered to above 80%, but whether there will be enough water in the dry season still depends on next year's rain. The research unit advises farmers to adopt water-saving methods such as alternate wetting and drying, switch to drought-tolerant varieties, and keep a close eye on weather forecasts.
  • ベトナム：国家水文気象予報センターは9月下旬、南中部、中部高原、南部の降雨量が20～40%少なくなる可能性があり、雨季が早く終わるおそれがあると発表しました。2027年1～5月にメコン川からベトナムに流れ込む水量は約3割減る可能性があり、2～4月の満潮時には、塩水が内陸へ数十キロメートル入り込むおそれがあります。冬春作のコメの収穫、夏秋作のコメの作付け、果樹園、水産養殖、飲料水が脅かされます。中部高原には、灌漑網の外にあるコーヒーやコショウなどの作物が約73.5万ヘクタールあります。
  • The Philippines: Philippine media reported in October that rice imports in 2026 may exceed 5 million metric tons, breaking the record set in 2024.
  • パーム油：インドネシアとマレーシアで、世界のパーム油輸出の約87%を占めます。米国の飢饉早期警報ネットワーク（FEWS NET）の集計では、1980年以降の強いエルニーニョの年に、両国の生産量は平均で通常より約4%少なくなっています。フィッチ傘下のBMIも、マレーシアのパーム油生産量、穀物価格、電力供給に影響が出る可能性があると注意を促しています。

南アジア：モンスーンの雨量が不足

Before the season began, the India Meteorological Department forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon would reach only 92% of the long-term average. Indian media report that by the end of the monsoon season, cumulative rainfall was 12.6% below the long-term average, the weakest since 2015, and rainfall in October may also be low. Monsoon rainfall in Pakistan's Sindh, Balochistan and other areas has been clearly below normal, and FEWS NET expects the worst food shortages there to come in January–March 2027.

オーストラリア、アフリカ、中南米

  • Australian wheat: According to FEWS NET, in past El Niño years Australian wheat output has averaged about 15% below trend; however, output in 1986/87, 1997/98 and 2009/10 was close to or above normal, while the two most recent events (2015/16 and 2023/24) were about 12% and 22% lower respectively, which shows the result still depends on the actual rain in the season.
  • Maize in southern Africa: The main maize season is sown in October–December, which coincides with the El Niño peak, and South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and other countries are forecast to be drier than normal. In past El Niño years, South African maize output has averaged about 28% below trend. This year's grain harvest in southern Africa is nearly 10% above the five-year average, so stocks can cushion the shortfall for now, but FEWS NET expects the toughest time to be the lean season from late 2027 to early 2028.
  • 東アフリカ：状況は二極化しています。エチオピア、南スーダン、スーダンなどでは、今年6～9月の雨季は雨が少なめでした。一方、ソマリア、ケニアなどでは、10～12月の雨量が平均の1.5倍以上になる可能性があり、川沿いの低地には洪水のおそれがあります。
  • 中米：EUの共同研究センターは9月、「乾燥回廊」でトウモロコシと豆類の収穫が大きな打撃を受け、ホンジュラスとエルサルバドルがいずれも国家非常事態を宣言したと指摘しました。
  • ペルー、エクアドル：アジアとは逆に、南米の西海岸で心配なのは、豪雨、洪水、土石流です。

台湾と東アジア

The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. Temperatures over the coming season tend to be warmer than normal, but most of the results are not statistically significant. The Administration also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only and that changes in other climate systems also need to be watched. Weather experts in mainland China have also warned that the spring and summer of 2027 may bring "floods in the south and drought in the north."

Taiwanese farmers are no strangers to water shortages: this spring, rainfall since last autumn and winter was the lowest in about 50 years, and Hsinchu and Miaoli put rotational irrigation in place, with three days of water supply followed by three days without. This time northeastern Taiwan may be drier toward the end of the year, so water needs to be looked after first; if western Taiwan turns wetter next January, milkfish, hard clam and white shrimp ponds in Yunlin, Chiayi and Tainan should watch for salinity suddenly dropping after heavy rain.

世界の食料：総量が大きく減るとは限らず、打撃を受けるのは地域、小規模農家、価格

El Niño does not necessarily cut the world's food supply sharply. Looking back at strong El Niño years since 1980, FEWS NET found that global output of wheat, maize and rice did not change much overall; FEWS NET, citing U.S. Department of Agriculture projections, says that total output of the three major crops in 2026/27 will be about 2.7% lower than last year, still at a historically high level. The ones who really suffer are specific regions: smallholders who depend on rainfall, irrigation districts whose reservoirs have run dry, and countries that rely on imported food. Higher food prices and shortages often do not show up fully until the next harvest after the El Niño peak.

3. 漁業と養殖：海水温が上がり、魚は減り、酸素も減る

Peru: The World's Largest Anchovy Fishery, Halted in the North-Central Region

The cold water off Peru normally supports the world's largest anchovy fishery. El Niño has warmed the sea, so anchovies are retreating toward the coast, to the south and into deeper water, and the share of juveniles is too high; since late May the Peruvian government has repeatedly extended the fishing ban. In mid-October, the Ministry of Production announced that the second fishing season would not open in the north-central fishing zone, citing abnormally warm seawater and breeding indicators below historical levels, and the need to protect the resource first (the second season in the southern fishing zone opened as normal in July). The Peruvian Marine Institute (IMARPE) estimates the anchovy stock in the north-central waters at about 5.12 million metric tons (data as of October 7), about 28% less than the survey at the start of this year (the local summer), with juveniles making up about 80% by number.

これは世界中の養殖業者に関わる話です。ペルーのカタクチイワシは、世界の魚油の半分以上を供給し、魚粉の重要な供給源でもあり、魚粉と魚油はエビ用や魚用の飼料の原料です。漁獲が減れば、飼料コストにも圧力がかかります。

Marine Heatwaves in Many Places: Water Too Hot for Farmed Fish to Cope

  • Pohang, South Korea: In August, a marine heatwave pushed water temperatures off Pohang up to 27.6–28.1°C. Reports in early August already put farmed fish deaths at about 810,000; by the end of August, the cumulative total in Gyeongsangbuk-do was about 2.63 million, of which about 2.52 million were in Pohang, mostly starry flounder (a type of flatfish), which prefers cold water. Local authorities spent about 4 billion won to rush in liquid oxygen and circulation pumps, but these can only add oxygen and cannot lower the water temperature; reports noted that high temperatures weaken the fish's resistance and make them prone to bacterial infection, so adding oxygen alone cannot save them. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that global sea surface temperature in July this year set a record for the month, and reports said El Niño was one of the main causes.
  • エクアドル：マグロ漁船の漁獲が減り、より遠い沖合まで出ないと魚が獲れなくなっています。
  • Coral reefs: In September, many sea areas had already issued severe bleaching alerts.

エビ・魚の養殖：暑さ、雨、干ばつの三方向から受ける打撃

The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold; yet at high temperatures the metabolism of fish and shrimp speeds up and they need more oxygen. This shortage on one side and higher demand on the other, together with the fact that at night algae, fish and shrimp only consume oxygen and produce none, is why fish gasp at the surface and die suddenly in the early morning in hot weather. When heavy rain arrives, a large amount of fresh water pours into the pond and salinity and pH change a lot all at once; in a drought, water cannot be replenished and the pond water gets more and more concentrated. At the Global Shrimp Forum in September, weather experts also cautioned that warming seas around Ecuador may at first favor shrimp growth, but heavy rain will lower salinity and flood ponds; in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, temperature and salinity may both rise.

4. 5つのリスクをまとめて整理

リスク今年のニュースにある例農家・養殖業者への影響
干ばつ・水不足Low reservoirs in Thailand in the first half of the year, short monsoon rainfall in India, dry sowing season in southern Africa水が足りず、いつ・どれだけ給水するかがいっそう重要になる。作物の減収、作付けの遅れや作物の切り替え
高温Marine heatwave in South Korea, global sea surface temperature at a record for July作物の高温障害、温室の過熱。養殖池の溶存酸素の低下。田んぼに出る人や池を見回る人も熱中症になりやすい
豪雨・浸水ペルー、エクアドルの洪水リスク、東アフリカの川沿いの低地圃場の冠水、堤防を越えた水による養殖池の魚の流出、ポンプ場や配電盤の水没
塩水侵入ベトナム・メコンデルタ、2027年2～4月灌漑水や池の水が塩分を帯び、稲作と淡水養殖が被害を受ける
停電高温で電力需給が逼迫、豪雨や台風で電力設備が損壊エアレーターやポンプが止まると、損失は数時間のうちに出ることが多い

もう一つ、見落とされがちな点があります。時間差です。エルニーニョのピークは今年の冬ですが、ベトナムの塩水侵入のピークは来年2～4月、南部アフリカの食料不足のピークはさらに遅く2027年末です。言い換えれば、今から準備しても間に合います。

5. 農家・養殖業者の皆さんが、今のうちにできること

  • Use water sparingly and where it counts: Alternate wetting and drying recommended by the Thai research unit (let the water in the field drop to a certain depth below the soil surface before topping it up, rather than keeping the field flooded all the time; but keep shallow water from booting through heading and flowering), switching to drought-tolerant varieties, and scheduling sowing by the weather forecast are all things you can do without spending much.
  • まず貯水と排水を点検：農業用ため池、貯水池、排水路、ポンプは、乾季の前に点検し、雨季の前に掃除しておきます。
  • Lower the risk at fish ponds: Delay stocking or lower the density in ponds not yet stocked, and consider harvesting earlier in batches from ponds already stocked; watch dissolved oxygen in the early morning, cut or stop feeding when it is hot and dissolved oxygen is low, and keep paddlewheels running from night until early morning; have spare aerators and a generator ready, test-run them regularly and keep enough fuel in stock; check salinity and pH more often before and after heavy rain.
  • Make sure someone knows about a power outage: An aerator that stops without anyone noticing is a common and especially regrettable loss.
  • 田んぼに出る人も守る：高温のときは真昼を避け、こまめに水分を補給してください。屋外作業の暑熱リスクについては、「WBGT とは？」も参考にしてください。

6. YenProtekにできること

エルニーニョがもたらす天気は、誰にも止められません。できるのは、早く知ること、足を運ぶ回数を減らすこと、動かすべき設備を時間どおりに動かすことです。YenProtekが作っているのは、難しい技術ではなく、農家や養殖業者の皆さんが手に取りやすい道具です。しかも、多くは今お使いの設備に後付けできます。

水が足りないとき：水は本当に必要なときに与える

The FarmerPack is a solar-powered, modular field micro weather station that can measure soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, rainfall and more, with a sampling interval as short as 1 minute, and it can run for more than 30 days without sunlight. Paired with a Smart Control Box, you can set "open the water only when soil moisture is below the set value, and not when it is raining," and there is no need to replace your existing pump motors or solenoid valves. When reservoirs restrict water, no watering is wasted; intermittent irrigation and alternate wetting and drying can also be carried out according to actual conditions in the field (further reading: "What Is Intermittent Irrigation?" and "What Is an Automatic Sprinkler System?").

高温のとき：暑くなったら通知し、動かすべきものは動かす

FarmerPackが測定した気温が設定した値を超えると、スマートフォンに通知が届きます。温室のファン、ミスト、遮光ネットのモーターをSmart Control Boxにつなげば、スマートフォンから遠隔でオン・オフでき、設定した温度になったら自動で動かすこともできます。ネットワークが一時的に切れても、Smart Control Boxは、最後にクラウドからダウンロードした設定値のまま動き続けます。

養殖池：溶存酸素と水質を、見回りを待たずに把握

The AquaPack is a water quality sensing system with a patented circulating self-cleaning design that can continuously measure dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, conductivity, ammonia nitrogen and more. You can see earlier when dissolved oxygen drops in the early morning during a heatwave, when pH changes after heavy rain, or when pond conductivity suddenly rises (often a sign that salt water has entered), and use this as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. To have aerators turn on automatically when dissolved oxygen is low, you need to choose the LoRa communication version and use it with a Smart Control Box; we still recommend that the main aerator run on a night schedule, with the dissolved oxygen rule only switching on additional units. The conductivity measurement range suits freshwater ponds for spotting early signals; for brackish water and seawater, please contact us first about the probe measurement range.

停電と浸水：警報が最も必要なときに、警報まで電気を失ってはいけない

In a heatwave, power supply is tight; when typhoons and heavy rain damage power lines, an aerator that stops means a race against time. The Power Outage Alert Module is installed on the power supply line of an aerator or pump and has a built-in battery; choose the NB-IoT version or 4G version with a built-in SIM, and it can still send out the alert throughout the outage (provided the local mobile network still has signal), notifying several people by LINE, SMS, email or voice call. The Flood Alert System notifies managers when the water level reaches the warning value, and can also trigger an audible and visual alarm depending on the plan; paired with a Smart Control Box, it can "turn on the pump when the water level is reached" (further reading: "Flooded and Without Power, Who Will Notify You?" and "A Fish Pond Power Outage Is No Small Matter").

Note: The Smart Control Box only switches power on and off. For high-power or three-phase motors such as aerators, paddlewheels and pumps, have a qualified electrician wire them through an external circuit, and then let the control box switch them on and off; the forward/reverse circuits and limit switches for shade nets and hoist motors should also be wired by the electrician.

どう組み合わせればよいか？

現場いちばん心配なことおすすめの組み合わせ
水田、畑水不足、取水制限、塩水の侵入FarmerPack (soil moisture, rainfall, air temperature) + Smart Control Box (pump motors, solenoid valves); if you are concerned about irrigation water turning salty, add an AquaPack to monitor conductivity
温室、ネットハウス高温、蒸し暑さFarmerPack (air temperature, air humidity, light intensity) + Smart Control Box (fans, misters, shade nets)
養殖池、エビ池早朝の酸欠、豪雨後の水質変化、停電AquaPack (dissolved oxygen, water temperature, conductivity; please contact us first about the range for brackish-water and seawater ponds) + Power Outage Alert Module, NB-IoT or 4G version + Smart Control Box (spare aerator; main aerator runs on a night schedule)
低地の圃場、ポンプ場豪雨による冠水、堤防の越水浸水警報システム＋Smart Control Box（排水用ポンプ）

すべての監視データは、APIとMCPで提供でき、既存の管理システムやAIツールとつなげられます。YenProtekの機器は台湾のチームが設計・製造しており、海外のお客様には遠隔技術サポートを提供します。接続周波数帯、通信網、認証要件は国ごとに異なりますので、所在国と現場をお知らせください。適した通信バージョンを確認いたします。

むすび：エルニーニョは止められないが、一足早く知ることはできる

今回のエルニーニョのピークは今年の冬ですが、農業と漁業への影響は2027年までずっと続きます。ベトナムの塩水侵入は来年の春、南部アフリカの食料不足は来年末、飼料や穀物価格の変動はさらに長引くかもしれません。季節予報が教えてくれるのは「どうなりそうか」までで、損失の大きさを本当に左右するのは、田んぼや池で異変が起きたとき、どれだけ早く気づき、どれだけ早く対処できるかです。ご自身の圃場、温室、養殖池にどう組み合わせればよいか知りたい方は、お問い合わせから現場と所在国をお知らせいただくか、先にオンライン見積もりで機器の組み合わせをお選びください。

FAQ | エルニーニョと農業・漁業に関するよくある質問

Q1：エルニーニョ現象とは？今回はどのくらい続くのか？

エルニーニョ現象は、赤道付近の太平洋中部・東部で海水温が異常に高くなり、それに伴って世界の大気や降雨の分布が変わる現象です。台湾の中央気象署は2026年10月、今回のエルニーニョはすでにスーパー級に達し、今年の冬にピークを迎えて来年の春まで続くと発表しました。NOAAも、2027年第1四半期まで強いエルニーニョ以上の状態が続くと予測しています。各地の作物や穀物価格への影響は、エルニーニョのピークの後、次の作期・次の収穫でようやく全面的に表れることが多いです。

Q2：エルニーニョが起きると、台湾は必ず干ばつになりますか？

Not necessarily. The Central Weather Administration forecasts that northeastern Taiwan may be drier than normal in November and December, and that most stations in western Taiwan may turn wetter than normal in January 2027. It also cautions that analyses of similar past years are for reference only. A more practical approach is to look at actual conditions in your own field or pond when deciding when to irrigate or change water, rather than relying only on seasonal forecasts.

Q3：エルニーニョの期間中、養殖池ではとくに何に注意すべきですか？

The warmer the water, the less oxygen it can hold, yet fish and shrimp need more oxygen, so pay particular attention to dissolved oxygen in the early morning when it is hot. Heavy rain or drought makes salinity and pH change faster, and it is dangerous whenever an aerator stops because of a power outage. Water quality sensing can keep track of dissolved oxygen, water temperature and conductivity (for brackish-water and seawater ponds, please contact us first about the probe measurement range), as a reference for adjusting feeding, changing water and turning on aerators. You can also add a Power Outage Alert Module (NB-IoT or 4G version) to the aerator, which can still send an alert after the power goes out.

Q4：YenProtekの機器は、台湾以外の国でも使えますか？

接続周波数帯、通信網、認証要件は国ごとに異なります。ご利用の国と現場をお知らせください。適した通信バージョンと供給方法を確認いたします。機器は台湾のチームが設計・製造しており、海外のお客様には遠隔技術サポートを提供します。

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